Capper Picks Ravens ATS vs. Saints for Monday Night Football

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 21, 2014 4:23 PM GMT

New Orleans Saints attempt to avoid a third straight home loss when they host the Baltimore Ravens in week 12 NFL betting. Find out what NFL odds are currently on offer across sports betting exchanges and where the value NFL picks are.

Will The Real Saints Please Stand Up
New Orleans Saints haven't dropped three in a row in the same season at the Superdome in almost ten years. Prior to their defeat to the Niners a fortnight ago, they hadn't lost a game at home since the 2012 season. San Francisco snapped an 11-game home winning stretch when they beat the Niners 27-24 in overtime. Cincinnati Bengals heaped more misery on the Saints with a 27-10 defeat in week 11, an upset that sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets.

The Saints are in very real danger of losing a third straight game at home. Teams headed to the Superdome feel like they actually have a chance. Tampa Bay gave New Orleans a run for its money before losing in overtime. Vikings contained the famed Saints offense to just 20-points and the Niners flat out beat them. The only game in which the Saints appeared to be the Saints of old was week 8's clash with Green Bay. Saints beat the Packers 44-23 despite allowing the Packers to account for 491 yards of offense. Drew Brees played one of his best games, going for 27-of-32 for 311 yards and three touchdowns.

All in all, form hasn't been up to snuff this season; largely down to costly offensive mistakes and a porous defense. Although the Saints boast the 3rd ranked passing offense in the league that averages 299.8 yards per game and 8th ranked rushing offense that averages 124.7 yards per game. the defense is modest at best. They are 24th against the pass and 19th against the rush, seeping as many points as offense deposits, 25.2 points allowed per game to 26.1-points scored per game.

In a strange twist this season, New Orleans behind a 4-6 SU record are tied for first place with Atlanta n the NFC South. So disastrous is the division that even with all the trials and tribulations they've faced so far, they could actually make the playoffs still. Needless to say a win over the Baltimore Ravens would be a purposeful step in the right direction.

 

Ravens Need To Win On The Road
It's a well known maxim, a team that can't win on the road has very little hope of a successful campaign. Ravens are 6-4 SU on the season but just 2-3 SU on the road, losing every game against a quality opponents. The lost to Indianapolis (20-13) earlier this season and their last two outings in a row against divisional rivals Cincinnati (27-24) and Pittsburgh (43-23). To date, the only road wins they procured were at the expense of Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

Ravens are coming off a bye week. Prior to that they beat the Titans convincingly in Baltimore. They are looking to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since October. Ravens have the 16th best passing offense and 10th best rushing offense. On the defensive-side of the ball, they have the edge over the Saints with 21st ranked defense against the pass and a 5th-ranked defense against the rush.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
This clash cuts fine across the NFL odds board. Oddsmakers install the Saints as the home favourites at -175 to win SU and as the 3-point home chalk against the spread. What the Saints have going in their favour is not only home advantage but also the disarray of their division that practically ensures they are still in play for a postseason spot if they win the title. That is incentive to bounce back at home on Monday Night Primetime Football, an occasion in which they thrive.

The Ravens have struggled on the road against good opposition, which takes the shine off their +155 SU NFL odds to win outright. But it's worth noting the Ravens are 4-1 SU following a bye since 2010 and they are 5-4-1 ATS this season. If defense can step it up, force Drew Brees into some turnovers, they could turn this game on its head. Saints may not have lost three in a row in the same season in almost ten years, but that doesn't make it improbable. When considering your NFL picks keep in mind that the Saints aren't indomitable this season, which means at the very least the Ravens have a shot to keep this game close.

NFL Picks: Ravens +3.0 at 5Dimes

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