Capper Favors Saints vs. Steelers for Your Week 13 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 28, 2014 7:18 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 28, 2014 7:18 PM GMT

Don't miss out as we bring you a complete preview of the matchup between the New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers complete with our choice NFL pick to add to your betting ticket. 

New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ( -5) 1:00 PM ET
Every week in the NFL Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, I isolate one game in which the public and linemaker strongly prefer a given side, while their opponent has clearly fallen out of favor.  Last week, the selection was on the Minnesota Vikings who cruised in under the NFL odds vs. Green Bay for yet another contrary winner in this category. This week’s selection is an easy choice for the public sees only one side to bet in this game. 

A quick look at the NFL Divisional Standings sees that each of these teams is vying for Divisional supremacy.  Yet there are not two more dichotomous Divisions in the League than the NFC South, where New Orleans resides, and the AFC North, home of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  New Orleans enters the week tied for the Division lead with Atlanta at 4-7.  Every team in the league is a loser with a combined record of 13-30-1 SU. Pittsburgh is ½ game behind Cincinnati for the Division lead.  The four teams in this Division are a combined 28-15-1 SU.  It is an easy leap for the public to play this short home favorite from a far stronger Division.  But in the ebb and flow of the NFL, that would be a costly mistake for you to make.

Compounding the New Orleans record to date is their shocking current form.  Three weeks ago, they entered a home game with San Francisco on a run of 20-0 SU, 18-2-1 ATS under their current HC Payton on their home field.  But in the last three weeks, New Orleans went 0-3 SU, ATS on their home field.  That is clearly not a team that lends itself to a lot of support.  The nadir of their discontent came on MNF when they lost 34-27 to Baltimore.  It was a game in which Baltimore rushed 32 times for 215 yards while New Orleans rushed just 21 times for 126 yards.  Long term readers know that the 34-27 Baltimore victory was virtually inevitable.  Now New Orleans must travel north on a short week knowing they are 2-9 SU, ATS away including just 1-4 SU away this year (victory over lowly Oakland).  What chance would they have with a defense that allows 26 PPG and 6.3 DEF YPPL, the 2nd worst in the league? 

Pittsburgh counters with an extra week of rest following their 27-24 MNF victory at Tennessee in which they completely dominated the Titans overland.  The Steelers ran 36 times for 206 yards while the Titans ran just 15 times for 49 yards.  Again, long term readers are not surprised by the SU result.  The extra week off has also allowed time for an injured defense to return to health specifically Polamalu, Taylor and Shazier are all expected to return to action this week.  That is a big boost against the passing game of QB Brees.  The Steeler offense has exploded this season because of a now healthy offensive line.  That has best played out in a most recent 3 game home stand, ending November 2nd, in which they totaled 124 points against Houston, Indianapolis and Baltimore.  Scoring should be plentiful against the New Orleans stop unit. 

Long time NFL followers realize, however, that “when it looks this easy, you must look the other way” considering the facts supporting our contrary New Orleans side.  New Orleans has won and covered their last five games following an appearance on MNF. As well, NFL home teams who take to the road following three consecutive home defeats are a long term 62% play.  For the Steelers, they bring a record of 5-13 ATS as non-division favorite into this contest.  That fits well with the fact Pittsburgh is just 1-14 ATS as favorite in a game preceding a battle with their arch rival the Cincinnati Bengals. When making your week 13 NFL picks keep in mind it would be no surprise to this bureau if New Orleans wins this one outright.

Free NFL Pick: Bet Saints SUATS at 5Dimes

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