Capper Dissects Thursday Night NFL Spread & Total

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 13, 2014 8:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014 8:04 PM UTC

For your NFL picks tonight look for the Bills to prevail on the basis of their series history, road ability, QB Orton’s resiliency and the potential OL problems for Miami.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
A quick look at the American Conference standings shows both Miami and Buffalo at 5-4 SU.  That leaves them not only 2 games behind New England for division superiority, but trailing 7 other teams for the right to compete in the post-season party. Though it is only Week 11, there should be clear urgency on the part of each of these teams. 

Last week the Bills hosted Kansas City. They held a comfortable lead of 13-3 in the 4th quarter. The eventual 17-13 loss was quite frustrating.  Again, there were numerous missed opportunities in the red zone for the Bills, who outgained KC 364-278. Three lost fumbles also impacted the result.  The Bills have owned this series of late, going 3-0 and 4-1 SU ATS against Miami. Included in that record is a 29-10 home victory vs. the Dolphins on September 14th, with a +3 net TO margin being a key factor in that outcome. QB Orton has been solid, if not spectacular, in his time under Center for the Bills. His resiliency as a starter in the league shows him to have an 8-2 ATS record as an underdog in this price range, following a team defeat. Must note also that the Bills will be playing with confidence on the road with a 3-1 SU ATS record as traveler with the 3 victories all in the underdog role. 

Much like Buffalo, Miami was in a barn burner last week themselves! In a game that could have gone either way, Miami emerged with a 20-16 defeat. This was warranted by the fact that Detroit had an overall yardage edge of 351-228.  That defeat snapped a 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS run by Miami. Nonetheless, they will be playing this contest with the good feelings of a 37-0 win vs. San Diego, the last time they took this field. Serious fundamental problem for Miami is the loss of key OL performer, Albert.  Knowing that QB Tannehill has already been sacked a league high, 58 times, leaves little confidence for the Miami offense. 

A clean game by each team figures to make this a very close contest.  As such, must favor the Bills’ series history, proven road ability, Orton’s resiliency, and the potential OL problems of Miami to make Buffalo the value side on the NFL odds board. 

OVER/UNDER players take note, in an article for the Pointspread Prognosis this week, I will be isolating the reasons for the success of OVERS in the NFL. For your NFL picks its worth noting that though these two teams do not qualify under the parameters I display, it must be noted that primetime games continue on a 24-7 OVER pace, while divisional contests in the NFL this season have resulted in a 27-16 OVER record. 

NFL Picks: Bills ATS & the Over  at 5Dimes

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Check Out Our Complete Coverage for this Game:

Bills vs. Dolphins: Opening NFL Odds Report

Bet 5.5 Units on Bills ATS vs. Dolphins for Thursday Night

Dolphins to Cover the Spread as 5 Point Favorites Tonight?

Look to Spread for Best Thursday Night Football Betting Value


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