Capper Backs Home Dog for Packers vs. Vikings NFL Betting

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 21, 2014 9:10 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 21, 2014 9:10 PM UTC

Don't miss out as we bring your our Perception/Reality NFL pick for Week 12. From a situational perspective, know that we have a huge advantage in this contest.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota
Every week in the Point Spread Prognosis, my PERCEPTION/REALITY game joins the NFL STEAMROLLER and the NFL UNDERDOG games as one of three best bets. Last week, they swept the board, going a perfect 3-0. That included our PERCEPTION/REALITY call on the St Louis Rams, a 22-7 upset winner against the Denver Broncos. PERCEPTION/REALITY games are always games in which the line maker and public perceive a popular team to be on the rise, while the underdog in the contest has dropped out of favor. Such an example exists in this game.

The Minnesota Vikings have struggled to a 4-6 SU, also ran, record in the NFC North, trailing Green Bay and Detroit by 3 games with just 6 remaining. Last week, the Vikings got swallowed by a hungry Bears team, who is far from one of the premier contingents in the league. Chicago outrushed Minnesota 138-96 as part of a 468-243 yardage margin, resulting in a 21-13 Chicago victory. Surely no one is eager to line up on the Vikings today knowing their pop gun offense, which averages just 18 PPG and 308 YPG, will have problems contending with the powerful Packers. Green Bay enters off a pair of dominant home performances. Two weeks ago, the Packers whipped Chicago 55-14; last week, they took Philly behind the wood shed by a count of 53-20. A closer inspection of the stats in that game reveals that Green Bay profited from a +4 net turnover margin, while only outgaining Philadelphia 475-429. Know that NFL road teams off consecutive 42+ point offensive outbursts are on a 5-11 ATS point spread slide. Clearly this line has been inflated on the basis of those two huge Green Bay victories.

From a situational perspective, know that we have a huge advantage in this contest. Green Bay takes to the road following those two huge home wins. This contest against Minnesota, whom they’ve already beaten 42-10, is a classic sandwich spot considering that next week Green Bay returns to Lambeau Field to host the high fly New England Patriots. Meanwhile, Minnesota will be very hungry to play a division leader following a division loss. When considering your NFL picks keep in mind that in the ebb and flow of the NFL, this is an outstanding value spot for the divisional home dog. It doesn’t hurt realizing that Green Bay is just 2-3 SU, 1-4 against the NFL odds spread on the road, outscoring the opposition by 3 points only once. 

NFL Picks: Vikings +9.5 at 5Dimes

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