Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Free NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Saturday, September 26, 2015 4:38 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 26, 2015 4:38 PM GMT

Rex Ryan talked a good game as he usually does, especially after Buffalo dominated Indianapolis in Week 1. But his vaunted defense got 40 hung on them by New England and the 40-32 scoreline showed a game that wasn't even that close. They get another AFC East rival as the Bills head south to Miami, where the Dolphins are waiting after losing to Jacksonville to fall to 1-1 and now they're playing at home for the first time in 2015.

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -3 -105 at Pinnacle
Miami opened as a field-goal favorite at home according to the NFL odds before the line went to -2.5, which is where it is right now. When it comes to relatively close matchups between division rivals, anywhere from -2.5 to -3.5 should be what you expect and with both of these teams coming off losses, neither is going to want to give an inch on either side of the ball.

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Injuries
RB LeSean McCoy was listed on the injury report last week because of his hamstring, but ran 15 times for 89 yards against the Patriots and returned to practice on Thursday. S Aaron Williams probably won't play because of a bad neck, while WR Marquise Goodwin might be able to go because of an injured rib, but don't count on him. QB Tyrod Taylor (chest) was also listed, but he participated fully in practice on Thursday and will be looking to continue his solid start to the season.

For the Dolphins, it looks like RB Lamar Miller (ankle) and TE Jordan Cameron (groin) will be ready to go after returning to practice on Thursday. T Branden Albert is questionable with a hamstring issue, along with DE Earl Mitchell because of a back problem.

 

Trends
The Bills have managed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games overall, going 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall, and they're 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. This total is set at 43.5, and the Bills have gone under in eight of their last 10, while the Dolphins have gone over in four of their last five.

The two have split their last 10 meetings both SU and ATS, while the Dolphins are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in 10 home meetings with the Bills, so these two have been pretty even over the last few seasons.

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