Bucs to Hit Dallas' Edzone Often Enough to Grab 'Over' as the NFL Pick

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, November 12, 2015 4:02 PM GMT

The Cowboys travel to Tampa Bay after a loss to the Eagles while the Bucs are still smarting from their defeat to the Giants. Let's find out what the NFL odds makers are hanging on the total in this one.

Dez Bryant Back – Romo Not Yet
Dallas welcomed back All-Pro receiver Dez Bryant back from the DL last week against the Panthers and made his presence known with one touchdown grab and 104 yards receiving. The Boyz lost the game to the Eagles in their Sunday night divisional showdown 33-27 but getting Bryant back is a big step towards climbing out of the NFC east basement and back towards some semblance of respectability. Quarterback Tony Romo has been sidelined with a broken collarbone but according to reports he will be back in the saddle in Week 11 when the team travels to Miami to meet the Dolphins.

However, Romo will not be in uniform when the Boyz meet the Bucs this Sunday. That distinction goes to backup Matt Cassel who took over for Brandon Weeden three weeks ago. His last game against the Eagles was his best yet. Cassel tossed for 299 yards and three touchdowns with one pick. He will get an opportunity to duplicate those efforts against a weak Tampa Bay secondary.

 

Doug Martin Keys Jameis Winston
Top overall pick Jameis Winston looks more confident in the pocket as the weeks roll by and that has everything to do with maturation, experience and Doug Martin. The Bucs lead tailback was beginning to resemble his rookie campaign in 2012 with three consecutive 100 plus yard rushing games, but he was stymied by a tough Falcons run stop unit two weeks ago that held him to 73 yards and last week he had only 11 carries in the Bucs’ loss to the Giants.

Though the Bucs lost last week, we must look at Jameis Winston’s performance to see a young QB that is doing less shuffling of his feet and more checking off targets. He threw for 249 yards last week and though he had no touchdown passes, neither did he have any picks. Mike Evans hauled in eight passes for 152 yards but was targeted 19 times. Obviously, when there are more misses than hits something is wrong and it speaks to more time practicing and developing chemistry.

 

NFL Pick
The Cowboys will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that has given up 19 touchdowns this season which ranks them second to last in the league. The Bucs defense is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete over 70 percent of their passes, which also ranks them second to last. On the flipside, Matt Cassel had his best game of the season last week and Dez Bryant gave the team a boost. I believe there will be plenty of points scored on this woeful secondary and the NFL odds makers are hanging a relatively low total in this one.

But now the question is: can the Bucs get to the endzone often enough to make this a worthwhile over in your NFL picks? Yes, they can. Dallas is allowing over 25 points per game and Winston looks more comfortable, developing a rapport with his receivers and staying stout in the pocket. Dallas has a decent pass defense but their run stop unit is middling which is why Doug Martin’s performance will be critical. If the Cowboys concern themselves with the Bucs rush it will open up opportunities for the pass. Here are a few stats to consider:

Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last five games overall.

Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four home games.

Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last five games as a road favorite.

Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last five games in Week 10.

Free NFL Pick: Play Over 43 at GTBets

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