Browns vs. Seahawks NFL Picks: Weather Conditions Key Factor to Play 'Under'

Jason Lake

Thursday, December 17, 2015 6:30 PM GMT

Thursday, Dec. 17, 2015 6:30 PM GMT

The red-hot Seattle Seahawks are the biggest favorites on the Week 15 NFL odds board. But that doesn't necessarily make the Cleveland Browns this week's biggest value.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837208, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NFL Pick: Under 43 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Jason's 2015 record as of Dec. 16: 48-45-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-31 Total
We're on the horns of a dilemma, folks. The Seattle Seahawks (8-5 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) are on a big-time roll right now, winning four straight games SU and ATS to put themselves back on the map for Super Bowl 50. Their opponents this Sunday, the Cleveland Browns (3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS), are on a long road to nowhere. It should be one of the easier NFL picks we've made here at the home office.

Except the Seahawks are laying 15 points at home as we go to press. Hoo boy. That is just... so many points. Maybe too many. There are at least some sharp bettors out there who think so; our consensus reports showed 55 percent of first responders taking the Browns, although that majority has narrowed to 51 percent since – with nearly two-thirds of the money landing on Seattle. Delightful.

 

Rain When I Die
There's a lot to sort our here, so let's break the ice by talking about the weather. The forecast for Sunday's game (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX) calls for a 65-percent chance of rain over the Emerald City, with temperatures in the mid-40s at kick-off. It's monsoon season in the Pacific Northwest; the rain is coming down right now as you read this, and except for a break on Saturday, it's supposed to rain all week long.

This ought to keep a lid on the two offenses in question. We're looking at a total of 43 points on the NFL odds, already one of the lower totals this week. Beating the Browns by more than two touchdowns will be that much more difficult if both teams are running around in the slop on Sunday.

 

My Super Sweet 16 Touchdown Passes
Obviously the Seahawks have the offensive firepower to get the job done. With Patrick Lewis plugging the hole at center left by the departure of Max Unger (in the Jimmy Graham trade with the New Orleans Saints), QB Russell Wilson has gone supernova, throwing 16 TD passes and zero picks over the past four games. The average score for Seattle during this stretch: about 35-14.

We've rolled with the Browns before as big dogs, to mixed success, but what do we do now that Johnny Manziel is their starting quarterback? While Manziel wasn't very good when the season started, he has gotten better over time – on the field, at least. The Browns even snapped their six-game losing streak SU and ATS with a 24-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers (+2.5 away) last week. Looks like is one of those increasingly rare situations where we're going to punt on the spread and take the UNDER, based primarily on the weather conditions. By the way, the UNDER is 6-0 in Seattle's last six home games in December. Happy Holidays, everyone, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

comment here