Browns vs. Patriots Week 10 Picks: Belichick Gets the Best of Former Team

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 12, 2021 9:16 AM EST • 2 min 29 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots enter this week with identical 5-4 records. Thus, this mid-season meeting will have huge playoff implications as these two teams continue to hunt for division titles and wild-card playoff spots. Which team has the upper hand in this AFC clash?

The Browns are 5-4 against the spread this season and have covered the spread in three of their four road games. The Patriots enter this week on a three-game winning streak and are also 5-4 ATS. However, they are just 1-4 straight up at home this season.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Browns and the Patriots. (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Browns vs. Patriots Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MAWeather: 50 degrees, partly cloudy

Browns vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

Note: Nick Chubb has been ruled out for this game, the team announced Friday.

The point spread for this game has differed by as much as 1.5 points at various sportsbooks throughout the week. The Patriots have been anywhere from as low as -1 to as high as -2.5-point home favorites.

The Over/Under has fluctuated similarly throughout the week, getting as low as 44.5 points. The current total of 45.5 is the highest it has been at mostly every sportsbook.

Browns vs. Patriots Betting Picks

Patriots -2 (-110) ?Over 45.5 (-110) ???

Browns vs. Patriots Predictions

Patriots -2 (-110)

The Browns are coming off their most dominant effort both offensively and defensively in last week's road win over Cincinnati. Cleveland's defense held the Bengals offense to a season-low 16 points and the Browns were +3 in the turnover margin. In addition, quarterback Baker Mayfield's 82.7 QBR was his highest this season, as his next-highest QBR was 58.4 in Cleveland's Week 1 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

While New England has struggled at home this season, three of its four home losses were to some of the NFC's elite teams (New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys). There were obvious growing pains that rookie quarterback Mac Jones would have to go through early in the season. Still, New England's coaching staff has done a masterful job of bringing him along and allowing him to get comfortable in the system. The Patriots have scored at least 24 points in five straight weeks and better ball security has been a big reason for their turnaround.

As of this writing, Browns running back Nick Chubb is still on the reserve/COVID-19 list and his potential absence is why we are picking New England to cover.

Over 45.5 (-110)

With Chubb potentially out for Sunday's game, more will fall on the shoulders of Mayfield. The good news is that Mayfield has performed much better in his career without the newly departed Odell Beckham Jr. than when he is on the field.

In games with Beckham Jr. on the field, Mayfield had a 61 percent completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a total QBR of 44. Without Beckham, Mayfield's completion percentage rises to 66 percent, and he has 22 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 65 total QBR.

Cleveland showed outstanding balance in last week's win, calling 23 run plays and 23 pass plays. A similar game script, even without Chubb, will keep the Patriots' defense guessing. The Browns have six games with 40 or more points since the start of 2020, so they can put up big numbers even with conservative game plans and relying on their mammoth offensive line. And with Jones looking more comfortable in New England's system each week, we like the Pats' chances of contributing to the scoring as well.

The Over has cashed in six of Cleveland's last seven games as an underdog and this 45.5 point total seems low as a result.

Picks made 11/10/2021 at 11 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”