Early NFL Picks for Browns vs. Panthers in Week 1: Baker Mayfield Gets Shot at Revenge

Former No. 1 draft pick Baker Mayfield will get an early shot at revenge when the Carolina Panthers host the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. We take an advanced look at the matchup with our early Browns-Panthers Week 1 NFL picks.

The Panthers acquired Mayfield from the Browns on July 6 to add some competition at quarterback. Mayfield, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, won't need to wait long for a shot at his former team, with Carolina hosting Cleveland in Week 1. However, he'll need to beat incumbent Panthers starter Sam Darnold and rookie passer Matt Corral in training camp for the No. 1 spot on the depth chart.

It's still extremely unclear who will be under center for the Browns in Week 1. Deshaun Watson, who was acquired via trade and signed to a massive contract extension during the offseason, faces off-field legal issues and a potential suspension from the league. Journeyman backup Jacoby Brissett is now No. 2 on the depth chart with Mayfield shipped out.

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Below, we'll look at the Week 1 odds for the Browns-Panthers clash with our advanced NFL picks based on the odds from our top-rated sportsbooks.

Browns vs. Panthers Week 1 Odds

Browns vs. Panthers Week 1 Odds Analysis

The Browns opened as 4.5-point road favorites for this Week 1 matchup when it was presumed Watson would be the starting quarterback. The Panthers had risen to 3.5-point underdogs with Watson's playing status in serious jeopardy for at least the first few weeks. They're now 1-point underdogs.

The consensus total of 43.5 dropped only slightly to 42.5 from the opening line.

Browns vs. Panthers Picks

Panthers (+100 viaFanDuel Sportsbook)Under 42.5 (-110)

Browns vs. Panthers Moneyline Pick

Panthers (+100)

The Panthers provide excellent value as +100 home underdogs in Week 1, regardless of who's starting for them at quarterback. Mayfield's best season of four with the Browns was in 2020 when he led them to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth while throwing 26 touchdowns against eight interceptions.

Though he regressed in 2021 while battling injuries, he'd still hold the upper hand over Brissett. If Darnold wins the Panthers' QB competition, the former third overall pick produced a strong start to the 2021 season—his first with Carolina—before the campaign turned south. The Panthers were 3-0 with Darnold completing 68.22% of his pass attempts for three touchdowns and one pick while adding three rushing scores.

Both teams will be likely to lean on the run game in this matchup, even though all eyes will be on the quarterbacks. We can give a slight edge to the Panthers and All-Pro Christian McCaffrey, as he's expected to start the 2022 season at full health. Carolina also boasted the superior rush defense in 2021, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA. The Panthers ranked 15th by that measure to the Browns' 23rd.

Browns vs. Panthers Over/Under Pick

Under 42.5 (-110)

The Under is the safest bet on the early line with both teams entering the 2022 season facing questions at quarterback and no confirmed starter between the two for Week 1.

If Mayfield and Darnold underperform in camp and during the preseason, and Watson is ultimately ruled out due to a suspension or otherwise, this line will surely become one of the lowest for the Week 1 slate. If you'd rather bet the Over, be sure to wait until Watson is officially ruled out to get the best number.

The strength of either team offensively will lie in the run game. However, head coaches Matt Rhule and Kevin Stefanski of the Panthers and Browns, respectively, will be simplifying the game plan for their prospective new quarterbacks.

Where to Bet on Browns-Panthers Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Browns-Panthers picks made 7/6/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET