Browns Are Best Value on the Board For Your Week 4 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Friday, October 2, 2015 6:39 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 2, 2015 6:39 PM GMT

The Cleveland Browns might look like your worst Halloween nightmare, but with the San Diego Chargers up next, Cleveland is the best value on the NFL odds board for Week 4.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 2: 13-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 7-9 Total

It's a packed crowd here at the home office, where we're waiting the arrival of the nominees for the Week 4 BeeVee Awards... here come the Jacksonville Jaguars, wearing the latest from Dolce & Gabbana... the New York Giants are magnificent in metallic blue, courtesy of Marc Jacobs... and look, the Cleveland Browns are here. I believe they're paying homage to The Great Pumpkin.

All right, time to hand out the coveted golden BeeVee for Best Value on the Board in Week 4. Narrowing the list to five candidates wasn't easy, but the votes are in, and here are the nominees:

Jacksonville +9.5 at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
New York Giants +5 at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Philadelphia –3 at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Cleveland +7.5 at San Diego (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)
Green Bay at San Francisco +9.5 (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)

And the winners are... the Cleveland Browns! Here to accept the award is owner Jimmy Haslam... what's that? Apparently Mr. Haslam can't be with us tonight, he and his Sigma Chi buddies are busy hazing the Cleveland rookies. We'll be sure that he gets a full rebate for his award.

 

Orlando Franklin Elementary School
What makes a team as bad as the Browns so valuable? It's a combination of things. Getting the extra half-point on the NFL odds board is nice. So is the fact that a slim majority of early bettors were on Cleveland, inching up to 54 percent consensus at press time. The Browns also have the No. 2-ranked special teams in the league, according to Football Outsiders. Travis Benjamin has been outstanding on punt returns.

But it's really more about the Chargers. They're a bit of a mess right now, with a boatload of injured players on the offensive line. LG Orlando Franklin (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game. LT King Dunlap (concussion) and center Chris Watt (groin) are doubtful. RG D.J. Fluker (ankle) is listed as questionable. That's not the kind of situation we want to throw money at with our NFL picks.

So we're betting the other side instead. QB Josh McCown (hand) is healthy enough to play in Week 4, and while he's slightly under replacement level at –11 passing DYAR, that's miles ahead of Johnny Manziel at –72. We're also looking at a 55-percent chance of rain over San Diego at kick-off; in what could be a low-scoring game with a total of 44.5 points, it'll be that much more difficult for the Chargers to win by more than seven. And hey, you can even get the Browns at +8 if you shop around. Next stop: Value Town.

NFL Pick: Take the Browns +7 at Pinnacle

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