The Denver Broncos got stomped in Week 4. Are they still the right choice for your NFL picks when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers?
Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Heinz Field
Oh for Pete’s sake. The Denver Broncos didn’t live up to expectations last Sunday when they hosted the Baltimore Ravens, dropping the cash for the first time this season in a 23-7 loss. Maybe things would have turned out differently had starting QB Teddy Bridgewater not been concussed at the end of the first half, but there you go. We can’t even take much solace in the fact that we had Denver as a pick’em, instead of –1 on the closing NFL lines.
Phooey. Nothing’s official as we go to press, but we’re assuming it’ll be Drew Lock under center for the Broncos (3-1 SU and ATS) this Sunday when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3 SU and ATS), a sad bunch coming off a 27-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers as 6.5-point road dogs. The Steelers have been awful to start the new season, but with Bridgewater presumably out and Lock-in, the early consensus reports show 72 percent of bettors taking Pittsburgh, who are available at –1 on the NFL odds board at (visit our Sportsbook Review). Do we really have to join them?
A Deadbolt Lock
Heck no. They also post totals at the top sportsbooks, and wouldn’t you know it, the Under is a combined 8-0 for these two clubs heading into Week 5. There’s a 40.5-point over/under at as we go to press, so we’ve missed out on the somewhat magical number 41 if we want to take the Under, but at least we’re still above 40. Maybe that’ll be the right NFL pick with Lock (6.6 QBR versus Baltimore) and what’s left of Ben Roethlisberger (36.9 QBR) about to collide.
Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP
Then again, the consensus reports for the total show a slight 57-percent lean towards the Over. And the fine folks at (visit our Sportsbook Review) have a 40-point total on their board, with their usual –108 vig attached to either side. There isn’t any nasty weather in Sunday’s long-range forecast for Pittsburgh, so with all our available projections suggesting this game is a coin flip, we’ll probably want to hit this total up for a small sum instead – and maybe there’s actually some sneaky value on the Over here.
It Tolls for Thee
Just how cooked is Big Ben? He’s had a lot more ups than downs since turning pro in 2004, but Roethlisberger is 39 years old, he hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2017, and he’s been hampered by a pec injury this year. Worse, Pittsburgh’s offense looks like it’s stuck in the mud under new coordinator Matt Canada. Then you have Lock, who occasionally flashed signs of brilliance as a rookie, but didn’t win the starting gig in Year Two. Here’s some good news for Over bettors: Neither of these defenses is quite as stout as hoped. Denver’s is still very good, checking in at plus-6.4 on the defensive Simple Rating system at NFL
Reference, but that’s still a distant fourth in the AFC – and Pittsburgh’s is another three spots behind them at plus-3.4. It isn’t often we get to make a contrarian bet on the Over. Let’s keep that bet size very small this time, given all the nonsense this matchup is throwing at us, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.