Broncos vs. Jaguars Free NFL Picks for Week 2

After an exciting Week 1 of action, the NFL is back in full swing and we've got our eyes on an AFC matchup featuring the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Broncos picked up a win in their first game while the Jaguars struggled in their opener against Houston. These are two young teams looking to turn their fortunes around so let's break this game down to see where the value is.

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, September 19, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field

Broncos Come in as Road Favorites

According to the SBR odds page, the Denver Broncos come into this game as -6 point favorites on the road which probably says more about Jacksonville than Denver. The reality is Denver is probably not a touchdown better than any team in the NFL on the road. That said, if there is one, Jacksonville might qualify. The total at most of the top online sportsbooks is 45.5 across the board.

The Denver Broncos will be without their best wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy who suffered what initially looked like a really bad ankle injury.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElXqsPOp9sg

The test came back and it is only a high ankle sprain which is still bad but it could have been so much worse. The fact that the Broncos are still favored by almost a touchdown lets you know how little oddsmakers think of Jacksonville.

We'll get to them in a minute but it does have to be said that the Broncos did look pretty good on both sides of the ball against the Giants. While Teddy Bridgewater might not be spectacular, he is a professional quarterback who limits his mistakes. While that might not sound like a ringing endorsement of his abilities, it's clear that he makes them a better team than last year's starter Drew Lock.

https://twitter.com/Broncos/status/1438164645341106180

Jacksonville Looked Really Bad in Week 1

One thing that is hard about capping the NFL is not overreacting to what happened in the previous week's game, especially in the early part of the season. Some teams take a while to figure out who they are just like some teams come out scorching hot only for reality to set in as the weeks unfold. Other times, the matchup was just not good for your specific style of play. I'm not sure which one of these applies to Jacksonville, but I do know that Trevor Lawrence and D.J Chark Jr are the only positives from Week 1.

Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP

Although Lawrence had three interceptions, he did make some spectacular throws. He made some pretty bad ones too but that's the life of an NFL rookie. The Jags offense looked sloppy overall and that starts in the trenches where the offensive line got bullied. I don't see how that's going to change against this Denver team who have a formidable pass rush, especially the way Von Miller looked against the Giants.

My Pick

I don't see any way that the Jaguars can slow Denver down in this contest. Even without Jeudy, the Broncos have weapons, starting with tight end Noah Fant who is a matchup nightmare. The other thing is the Broncos run game, which I see as a massive problem for Jacksonville, with Melvin Gordon looking good in Week 1. If Bridgewater can get his play-action passing game going, I think the Broncos get at least 30+ points in this game.

Noah Fant #87 of the Denver Broncos. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

As for Jacksonville, they showed me last week that they are going to fight until the bitter end and will give Lawrence as many reps as possible, regardless of the score which bodes well to the over. For my NFL pick, I don't need Lawrence to light it up and I think he can get a few scores to help push this game over the 45.5 total.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.