Broncos vs. Commanders Prediction & Odds for Sunday Night Football: NFL Week 13 Betting Preview

My Broncos vs. Commanders prediction for Sunday Night Football breaks down this matchup of two teams coming off bye weeks and heading in opposite directions. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium (NBC/Peacock).

Denver is a 5.5-point betting favorite across the market, as it enters amid the league’s second-longest active winning streak. But my NFL Week 13 predictions are siding with the sharp action and the reverse line movement by backing the home underdogs.

✅ Broncos vs. Commanders prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13. 

🏈 Sunday Night Football preview & score prediction

It is very telling that the Broncos, who have won eight straight and have received 69% of the point spread wagers have seen their line shorten from -6.5 to -5.5 when facing a Commanders team that is tied for the league’s longest losing streak (six games). That has me backing the home ‘dogs with confidence, aligning with the perceived sharp action.

Bo Nix’s drastic home/road splits

Denver has been a much different home team, particularly sporting a much more efficient passing game at Mile High, as opposed to its road games this year.

The Broncos are 6-0 SU (3-3 ATS) at home, with a +4.5 ATS margin and 21 completions of 20-plus yards and totaling 761 yards after the catch. On the road, Denver is 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) with a +0.9 ATS margin, 10 completions of 20 or more yards, and 533 yards after the catch.

Despite Denver being 9-2 and heavily in the mix for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, it is one of two teams in the league to have trailed in every game. That makes the Broncos the only team besides the 2022 Vikings since division realignment in 2002 to trail in their first 11 games despite entering game 12 with at least an 80% winning percentage.

DraftKings is the only top sports betting site charging less than -105 (51.22% implied probability) to back the ‘dogs at +5.5. Its -102 odds would return $9.80 in profits on a winning $10 wager if Washington covers.

Score prediction: Broncos 21, Commanders 17

🆚 Key matchup to watch on SNF

Marcus Mariota vs. Broncos defense

Oddsmakers are tipping their hands that Marcus Mariota is in line for a heavy volume passing game in this matchup, as his O/U of 192.5 passing yards is 15 more than his season average, despite facing the NFL’s sixth-ranked pass defense.

Mariota should be under constant duress against a Broncos defense that leads the NFL in pressures and is second in sack rate. There is also a chance that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II is back to anchor a secondary that has picked off just six passes this year.

Mariota has thrown at least one interception in four of six games this season, and is a great bet to do so once more against the disruptive Broncos.

Best prop bet: Marcus Mariota Over 0.5 interceptions (-125 via BetMGM)

📊 Broncos vs. Commanders odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 13.

 Broncos vs. Commanders betting trends

🚑 Broncos vs. Commanders injury report

🌤️ Broncos vs. Commanders weather

Temperatures will drop to 40 degrees in Landover, Md. on Sunday night, with chances of precipitation tailing off to 13% after rain showers linger through the day. 

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.

📺 How to watch Sunday Night Football: Broncos vs. Commanders

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 30
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
• TV: NBC/Peacock