Broncos vs. Colts:Total Preview, Prediction & NFL Picks for Week 9

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 5, 2015 2:45 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015 2:45 PM UTC

The Under is 7-0 for Denver in the 1st Quarter, so let’s saddle that horse against the Colts in Indy Week 9 and see if backing the Under or Over for the entire game (45) is a better NFL pick.

What: NFL Week 9—New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Time: 4:25 p.m. EST/1:25 p.m. PST [Sunday 21:25]
Weather Forecast: Mainly Sunny, Low 55°, Winds E 5 mph, 51% Relative Humidity
Point Spread Range: Broncos -4½ (William Hill) to -5½ (SuperBook, Coast Casinos)
Lowest Total in Marketplace: 45 (Pretty much everywhere Monday)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 45 (Everywhere)
Highest Total in Marketplace: 45 (BetOnline)
Alternate Total: Over 46 +100 Under 46 -125 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Over 47 +110 Under 47 -150 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Over 48 +120 Under 48 -162 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Over 49 +137 Under 49 -187 (bet365)

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
Future NFL Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning and the still unbeaten Denver Broncos (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) head to familiar Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to face the Colts (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) in this entertaining AFC showdown on Sunday afternoon in Week 9 from Indianapolis.  With the Broncos humiliating the Packers in Denver on Sunday night and with the best and most athletic Defense in NFL with players like Von Miller, Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, Vance Walker and Chris Harris, Jr. the Broncos (168 PF -112 PA) are in a much better head space right now than are the sputtering host Colts (147 PF-174 PA) and if former Colts QB Manning and his team play like they did in the humbling of Green Bay on Monday night, then the Colts are in trouble and will staring a 3-5 SU mark in the face heading into Week 10 play. Although backing Denver is betting into the teeth of an unbeaten 8-0 ATS trend for Indianapolis in this series, the race for Homefield Advantage in the AFC between the Patriots, Bengals and these Broncos will give the visitors from Colorado some hidden motivation which may be lost on the hosts from the Hoosier State. But we’re talking about and analyzing the Total here, so let’s take a look at the L10 Final score in this series—that 10 game stook place in a total of four different stadia— along with the posted final Totals and the results.


Totals Results in the L10 Meetings — Denver Broncos-Indianapolis Colts
—Colts 24 @ Broncos 13 (AFC Playoffs) Total: 54 Result: Under
2014—@ Broncos 31 Colts 24 Total: 52½ Result: Over
2013—@ Colts 39 Broncos 33 Total: 53½ Result: Over
2010—Colts 27 @ Broncos 13 (Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver) Total: 47 Result: Under
2009—@ Colts 28 Broncos 16 Total: 43½ Result: Over (by ½ point)
2007—@ Colts 38 Broncos 20 (RCA Dome, Indianapolis) Total: 46 Result: Over
2006—Colts 34 @ Broncos 31 (Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver) Total: 40 Result: Over
2005—@ Colts 49 Broncos 24 (RCA Dome, Indianapolis, AFC Playoffs) Total: 56 Result: Over
2004—@ Broncos 33 Colts 14 (Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver) Total: 44 Result: Over
2003—@ Broncos 31 Colts 17 (Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver) Total: 48 Result: Push


Series Trends, Total Aanalysis and Realistic Game Expectations
The Final Scores for the L10 meetings between these two pass-happy AFC teams and exclusive members of the Peyton Manning Employers Club reveal a 7-2-1 record for the Over and when you have guys like the 39-year-old Manning the Elder and Andrew Luck slinging the pigskin, that to be expected but these two teams are like new, evolving versions of past broncos and Colts teams. Growing horses, you know. And note that two of the games were Playoff games. When these two AFC heavyweights last played, the Broncos eliminated the Colts in the first round of last year’s AFC Playoffs in Denver, 24-13, covering as 9½-point favorites (by 1½) at Sports Authority Field in Denver while the last time these two met in Indianapolis, Denver won 39-33 but got its backers at the betting window go nipped by the ½ point as 6½-point NFL odds favorites in 2013. Former Colts QB Manning is certainly feeling better about himself after humbling the packers in the Mile High City in Week 8, while his former team, the Colts are an enigma of sorts this season with a seemingly lame duck Head Coach (Chuck Pagano) just trying to get through the season and a team that seems to start playing halfway after the game has started and when down around 20 points. Not cool. The SuperBook made the host Colts 1-point favorites in its NFL Games of the Year while the Advanced Line was Broncos -3, so we can all see how much the Bubble has burst in term of Colts perceptions. All bubbles eventually burst.

Trend-wise, the Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings in this series and the Over is also 19-6-1 in the Broncos L26 games on FieldTurf (Lucas Oil Stadium), 6-2-1 ATS the L10 Denver games in Week 9 and 8-1 ATS the L9 Colts games in the month of November. Denver 1st Quarter Unders are now 7-0 ATS this season heading in here so not only betting that niche market but also using that knowledge in the 2nd Half Highest-Scoring Half -110 (Ladbrokes) marketplace seems wise as the miniscule 2.38 ppq average scored in the Broncos first 7 games in the 1st Quarter almost make it seem like there is no scoring in the 1st Quarter in Denver games this year. Proof the Broncos deadly Defense come to play from the start is in the 1st Quarter numbers: The Broncos haven’t allowed a TD all season in the 1Q and have only allowed a Vikings Blair Walsh FG in Week 4 in the 1st Quarter after 8 games. Granted, Denver has only scored 16 points—including just 1 TD of their own—but with 1st Quarter Totals usually set at 7½, betting Broncos Unders in the 1st Quarter has been a nice Cherry Tree to pick Cherries from. But does that necessarily mean that this game will end up going Under? The feel for that comes from the Broncos Defense playing at a historic level—almost like an Offense of its own—and with Manning Old and struggling most of the season and Luck hobbled, nervous, pressed and playing in front of an extremely weak OL, two TDs can probably be the most the hosts can hope to put up while the visitors from Denver—who just got TE Vernon Davis from the 49ers this week—will do what it has to Offensively and isn’t the juggernaut is was last year with TE Julius Thomas (Jaguars) and Wes Welker (Retired?) on the Roster. Despite the strong Over Trends and the Passing QBs, the Under seems to be the play here just because of the situation with possibly 20 or less points scored in the 1st Half. And it seems riding the 1st Quarter Under Trend with our NFL picks until it loses should be weighted a little more heavily than the entire game Under bet.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Broncos 24 - Colts 16

NFL WEEK 9 TOTALS PICKS: Under 45 (Bovada), 1st Quarter Under 7½

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