Broncos vs. Chargers Week 17 Picks: Denver To Cover The Spread

Week 17 features an AFC West matchup that means a whole lot for both teams in terms of potential playoff positioning. We dive into it with our Broncos-Chargers picks.

The Denver Broncos are making the most of those three wins they began the season with. They’ve picked up four wins in the last six weeks to catch fire, covering in all of the wins and twice winning as underdogs. They are not dead yet in the race for the playoffs

The Los Angeles Chargers come in on a two-game losing streak after they’d picked up some momentum with two wins over the Bengals and Giants. A 41-29 loss in Week 16 at the hands of the Texans was a low point, and it will take a monumental effort to regroup in just a week’s time for the game of the season against Denver.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 17 matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a one-to-five-star scale).

Broncos vs. Chargers Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:05 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CAWeather: Indoors

Broncos vs. Chargers Odds Analysis

The Chargers opened up as six-point favorites and have been bet up ever so slightly to 6.5 points. A staggering 92% of the tickets are on the Chargers to cover that number.

The total has risen to 46 points at some books from the open of 45.5 points, but that number is still widely available. It's close to an even split as to how many tickets are on the Over and Under.

Broncos vs. Chargers Picks

Broncos +7.5 (-110) ?????Over 45 (-105) ???

SEE ALSO: Early and Late Slate Parlay Picks for Week 17

Broncos vs. Chargers Predictions

Broncos +7.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

I’m sorry for anyone who is offended by this, but I don’t think the Chargers are a very good football team. They have a fantastic quarterback who has many bright years ahead of him and some nice playmakers on offense. With that said, this defense has been atrocious and the team is a year or two away from being a serious contender.

With that, I don’t think they will have the comfortable win they’re looking for in a must-win spot. Los Angeles was just torched by the Houston Texans — perhaps the worst offense in football — and it was no fluke. The Chargers are all the way down in 28th when it comes to weighted DVOA and is 32nd against the run.

Denver has been surprisingly good on offense this year and ranks 11th in rushing DVOA. It is picking up 4.4 yards per carry and should have the goods necessary to gash this Chargers team. Los Angeles has some shiny toys on offense but the sum of its parts has been downright bad as a team and despite some nice offensive outings we’ve seen this defense erase any good things Herbert & Co. have done. Even with some COVID-19 related absences, this is too big of a number for the Chargers.

Over 45 (-105 via FanDuel)

The Denver defense comes into this one highly vaunted, ranking first in opponent points per game, but as we’ve touched on above the Chargers can actually score the ball pretty well. They’re fourth in offensive DVOA and should be able to attack the Broncos’ secondary with decent success, considering they’ve allowed 6.5 yards per attempt.

I also alluded to how much I hate this Chargers defense. They’ve been the leading contributor to four straight overs in the last four games for L.A., and this unit just puts Herbert in an impossible spot. There’s no way L.A. will be able to hand the ball off to Austin Ekeler all game, I think it’ll have to pass for most of this one to make up for the Broncos’ tremendous push against this Chargers front.

It’s always scary taking the over in a game where you know one team’s going to lean heavily on the run, but Herbert’s ability (and need) to throw could turn this one into a shootout.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Broncos-Chargers picks made on 12/30/2021 at 10:01 p.m. ET.