Broncos vs Bengals Picks Against The Spread - NFL Week 3 Predictions

Trevor Siemian

Nikki Adams

Friday, September 23, 2016 9:34 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 23, 2016 9:34 PM UTC

The Broncos travel to Cincy in week 3 and, not surprisingly, as the road underdogs on the NFL odds board. Can they defy the NFL odds? We preview the game complete with NFL picks and the best NFL line to spot.

Denver Broncos (2-0 SU and ATS)
So much for the fusspots questioning Gary Kubiak’s decision to start Trevor Siemian. Two games into the season, the defending Super Bowl champions are 2-0 SU and ATS (with a +7.5 winning margin on average and a +6 differential versus the spread) and, even, a perfect 2-0 on the OVER in total betting, the latter of which includes a +9.5 differential against closing totals.

Siemian has notched victories over Super Bowl finalists Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts, two sides sporting well known and established quarterbacks Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. That’s no mean trick. Of the two home fixtures, the first arguably was the more impressive as he led the Broncos to a come-from-behind win to defy the NFL betting odds.

Broncos closed as the +3 home underdogs to the Panthers at Mile High and NFL betting trends revealed a distinct lean towards the Panthers. It proved to be one of the most important decisions for bookmakers in week 1 when the Broncos won thereby thwarting public bettors that blindly pounded the Panther on account (most likely) of having the better quarterback.

Against the Colts, Siemian had a good turnout but, arguably, defense won the game. Aquib Talib’s pick-six and Von Miller’s strip sack that led to a fumble return for a score proved the game winners and lifted the Broncos to not only their second win but also second straight cover.


Denver hit the road for the first time in 2016
How the Denver Broncos will account on the road is the main question. It’s one thing to win on familiar ground in a friendly environment, Another to do it on the road against a highly-fancied AFC opponent, Cincinnati Bengals. If the NFL odds were any indication, the prognosis isn’t favorable. The Broncos open as the +3 road underdogs, an NFL line that hasn’t budged since going to press.

The Bengals are coming off a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 2 on the road that sees them slip to 1-1 SU on the season with a -3.5 losing margin on average. However, they started 2016 with a pair of road games which is always a demanding.

There are those NFL bettors that would suggest the Bengals were lucky to win at MetLife over the NY Jets in week 1. Certainly, they didn’t play their best football to start the game but they did avoid the defeat. Don’t expect the Bengals to apologize just because they win games ugly. (That said, had they been 0-2 SU going into week 3 we might have been looking at a different NFL betting market altogether on this game.)

Regardless, it’s Cincy’s home opener at Paul Brown, where Andy Dalton typically plays his best football, especially when starting at 1PM ET. Quite rightly, the Bengals are the standard field goal home favorites. Bengals boast a 13-4-2 ATS record at home since 2015, which includes a 6.9 winning margin and + 3.8 differential versus the spread.


Broncos vs. Bengals current NFL betting trends
At the time of writing, the Bengals are taking in 53.3% of wagers coming down the wire and 63.27% of the total dollars. An early and one-sided NFL betting trend that bets up to the Bengals from -3 (-110) to -3 (-130) with several sports betting outlets.

It’s going to be interesting to see how this market settles, whether the adjusted juice triggers buyback on the Broncos, who strike a tempting pose as the +3 underdogs with juice that ranges from +110 to +115.


Broncos vs. Bengals betting verdict and picks
For our money, we’re of the mind to buyback the Broncos as the +3 road underdogs at the current juice. Intentionally going against current public betting trends and here’s why.

To begin with, the Denver Broncos defense is nothing to sniff at. In two games against stellar quarterbacks and offenses, the Broncos have reduced their opponents to just 293 total yards of offense per game and held them to 20 points against on average. Then there is the scoring threat the defense poses, which proved game-changing in week 2 mainly.

On the flipside of the ball, Trevor Siemian has shown poise and confidence in the face of respectable opposition. That bodes well for the unheralded quarterback as he gets more games under his belt. Plus Gary Kubiak and his teammates trust him.

Where the Bengals are concerned, there are a couple of red flags that leap off the page particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Remember Andy Dalton is working with a new offensive staff this season following Hue Jackson’s departure to Cleveland and were not so sure things are as they should be.

Dalton does lead the offensive charts (732 yards in total offense), but those are what many NFL insiders would call garbage yards when you consider they include two TDS, 1 interception, and 8 sacks. Compare those to Matt Ryan, who boasts 730 yards in total offense and 5TDs, 1 INT and 4 sacks. Or, even, Ben Roethlisberger, who boasts a meager 579 yards in total offense and 6 TDs, 3 INT and 2 sacks.

In fact, the Cincy offense has struggled to put up points as a unit. Of the 793 yards of total offense they acquired over two games, they are only averaging 19 points per game. Granted that’s a credit to the Jets and Steelers defense and might not be symptomatic of offensive struggles under the new scheme.

However, that only makes this matchup more concerning surely. Denver defense ranks 6th in total defense (second against the pass). That’s much higher than both the Jets and Steelers (18 and21, respectively going into week 3). Whichever way you slice it, Andy Dalton could be in for a long day.

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Free NFL Picks: Denver Broncos +3 (+115) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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