Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 15, 2020 – 4:05 ET at Allegiant Stadium
An AFC West matchup in Vegas as the 3-5 Broncos take on the 5-3 Raiders with a spread of 4.5 to 5 and a total of 51.
Will Drew Lock Turn Up Before the 4th Quarter?
The talent is there in Denver. Despite injuries to key players they’ve managed to keep putting up points on teams in recent weeks. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter in each of their last two games against the Chargers and Falcons respectively.
It actually got them an unlikely one-point win with zeroes on the clock against the Chargers, but was too little, too late against the Falcons last week. Realistically they’ve been in a dire position because QB Drew Lock has been terrible in the first three quarters of the last two losses they’ve suffered, although his overall numbers have finished quite respectable.
The shoots of hope are there though for them being a good team going forward. They’ve got a good defense which DVOA has ranked at #9 overall, 12th v the pass, 13th vs the rush. So they’re solid on that side of the ball, they just need more consistency on the other side. It’s not been easy with Courtland Sutton going down for the season and the connection that Lock was building with Albert Okwuegbunam was looking very good as well.
I know the Broncos will be able to score they’re averaging 21.75 points on the season and 29 points over their last couple of games. Overall, on the season they’ve gone over the best sportsbooks totals in 5 of their 8 games.
Will the Raiders Keep Pace with the Other playoff Hopefuls?
The move to Las Vegas looks to have been good for the Raiders so far. Despite a rough start to their schedule they’re sitting at 5-3 on the season and have probably the best win of any team in the league when they beat the Chiefs in week 5. It’s put them in a good position in their division and they’re currently the 6th seed in the AFC with around a 75% chance of making the post-season.
One of the bigger shocks for me is how much they're looking downfield. Derek Carr has always been regarded as a safe QB who throws the ball short and keeps it safe, but the addition of Henry Ruggs and some more positive play calling has him throwing deep to Ruggs. Or apparently, more likely Nelson Agholor who has finally learned how to catch a ball instead of letting it through his hands.
Darren Waller is back from injury and playing well, he’s the safety blanket for the team and usually leads them in targets and receptions. They have the ability to grind out games on the ground with Josh Jacobs happy to take 30+ carries per game to move the ball down the field.
Defensively they’re not good, but the offense has been able to put up the points to win games. They’ve gone over the totals in 6 of 8 games with a push in there, so basically tied with the Saints for the most games going over their oddsmakers total line.
So What Happens?
The Raiders have won both games they’ve had when leading at the half. Considering the way the Broncos have been playing in recent weeks that looks like it’s a real possibility.
Jay Gruden has done a decent job for the Raiders and has them effectively going forward. It’s actually quite fun to watch.
I think the Raiders win but I’d leave them against the spread. My recommendation for this match is to take the over on the total on the betting sites.