Broncos Surpass Expectations & Make Bettors Cash Their NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Monday, February 8, 2016 12:03 PM GMT

Two years after losing in Super Bowl 48 to the Seahawks, Peyton Manning and the revamped Denver Broncos defense rise from the ashes to clinch Super Bowl 50 against the NFL odds.

Denver Broncos Super Bowl 50 Champs
The Denver Broncos were laid to waste at the Foxboro by Seattle Seahawks in an abysmal Super Bowl 48 loss that doesn’t bear thinking about, let alone recalling. Two years on, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 50, beating the Carolina Panthers 24-10 at Levi Stadium. The best bit, they pull off the feat as the overwhelming underdogs across the board.

Opening Super Bowl 50 betting markets opened with the Carolina Panthers as the 3.5-to-4-point faves (thereabouts depending on the sports betting exchange in question), but they were bet up to 5.5-6-points within days of markets going to press. All down to the overwhelming public reaction to the Panthers, piling on top of what seemed to be low NFL odds given their impressive run through the season and postseason. Heck, at early doors, sportsbooks were recording utterly one-sided betting on the Panthers to the tune of 90% of the money entirely locked down in their camp.

As game time approached, however, buy back money on the Broncos started to trickle in. It’s said that 90% of the betting on Super Bowl typically comes in mere days before the Super Bowl. So it proved to be the case here. Late bettors weighed in so significantly on this game that it forced the line down to 4.5-points at most sports betting shops by Sunday morning, including Heritage and Pinnacle. That’s where the lines closed for the most part, with betting action levelling out considerably. Panthers still had the greater share of the money, but the split was 58.71% to 41.30% by closing doors according to SBR Consensus Betting Polls.

In straight up betting markets, the Panthers opened around the -200 mark before rocketing up to the -300 mark in early betting. But as with spread betting, so it was with straight up betting levelling out as game time approached with late sharp money. The Panthers came back down to earth, closing near the opening mark of -200 at most sports betting outlets. At the same time, the Broncos yo-yoed back and forth from +180 to +250 before settling around the initial opening NFL odds released by odds makers.

Obviously, those sharp NFL bettors that took the Denver Broncos against the NFL odds are huge winners tonight. Arguably, though, the biggest winners are those that took a chance on the Broncos at the start of the season.

The Broncos entered the season amongst the top five-to-eight faves at most sports betting outlets, with NFL odds ranging anywhere from +1000 to +1500. Throughout the course of the season, they never ranked amongst the top two faves for the Super Bowl.

During the playoffs, they were fifth overall faves at most sportsbooks. Some had them even lower in the hierarchy. Nowhere were they amongst the top two favorites either – that was the domain of the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers according to odds makers, despite acquiring the AFC top seed. So it’s not without some irony that they defeated this pair en route to winning the coveted Championship.

Not only did the Broncos exceed those overarching expectations to win the coveted prize, they also came through for NFL bettors with a 12-4 SU season that saw them cash on the OVER 10.5 projected season win totals for 205-206, an NFL picks we recommended way back in May. Not to brag or anything.

Where Peyton Manning and the Broncos go from here and how they’ll stack up in Super Bowl 51 betting markets is anybody’s guess. For now, they are your Super Bowl champions. Bravo!

Super Bowl 51 Odds
We may not know at this vantage point what the future holds for the Denver Broncos, but we can certainly take a page from odds makers, where they currently reside in the overarching market for Super Bowl 51 that was released on the heels of Sunday’s grand finale at Levi Stadium.

According to the Super Bowl 51 futures odds going to press, the Denver Broncos rank amongst the top ten teams in the running but on the lower end of the scale at +1400 NFL odds (Table 1) at Bet365

At first glance, it might look like a serious show of disrespect to the reigning champions, but, in reality, it’s a realistic assessment of their chances. In all likelihood, the organisation is going to push forward with backup Brock Osweiler next season as the starting quarterback. No official announcement has been made nor has Peyton Manning officially handed his resignation from the team or the game, but it’s widely expected the 40-year-old will do just that. Denver still boasts a respectable defense that was almost exclusively responsible for this Super Bowl win, but with a yet untried and unheralded quarterback leading the team through the course of a gruelling 17-week regular season it would be rather ambitious to have the Denver Broncos trading at the top of the pile, at the expense of teams such as the Seahawks, Panthers, Patriots and Packers (to name a few) that have elite quarterbacks at the helm.

Table 1. Super Bowl 51 Odds