Brady & Tannehill Bookend AFC Quarterback Rankings ATS

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, August 8, 2018 3:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2018 3:55 PM UTC

Who’s the best starting quarterback in the AFC against the spread entering the 2018 regular-season? Who’s the worst? SBR crunched the numbers for you. Take a look.

Below are the top and bottom three first-team AFC quarterbacks in terms of against-the-spread betting heading into the 2018 NFL campaign. Players must have attempted more than 10 passes in at least 20 contests for ranking consideration. Results include playoff appearances.

Top Three AFC Quarterbacks ATS

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

ATS Record: 167-111-9 (60.1 percent)
ATS Margin: 3.8
Avg. Line: -5.5

How does a QB become the GOAT? By winning contests the betting market projects as toss-ups or expected defeats. This is where Tom Brady shines. He is 45-25 SU and 49-20-1 ATS (71.0 percent) kicking off an underdog or short-priced favorite of less than a field goal in his career, topping a 2.5-point line by a whopping 7.4 points per game. The numbers tell it all.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

ATS Record: 43-30-2 (58.9 percent)
ATS Margin: 1.2
Avg. Line: -0.2

Andrew Luck can pick apart a porous defense as well as any signal-caller in the NFL. His betting record is proof. Luck is 20-8 ATS (71.4 percent) against opponents yielding greater than 24.0 points per game entering a contest. The three-time Pro Bowler leads Indy to 26.5 points per game on 264.2 passing yards. Luck is a pedestrian 22-18-2 ATS (55.0) against all others.

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Case Keenum, Denver Broncos

ATS Record: 20-15-6 (57.1 percent)
ATS Margin: 0.5
Avg. Line: -0.6

Case Keenum came of age last season with the Vikings, named a First-Team All-Pro and selected to his first Pro Bowl. Now with the Broncos, his fourth different team in six years, Denver fans hope he can keep the team competitive as his past betting record indicates. Toss out Keenum’s 2013 Texans campaign, his first as an NFL starter, and the agile right-hander is 22-11 SU and 18-10-5 ATS (64.3 percent) under center.

Bottom Three AFC Quarterbacks ATS

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

ATS Record: 33-41-2 (44.6 percent)
ATS Margin: -1.2
Avg. Line: 0.8

The Dolphins average 20.4 points per game with Tannehill taking 10 snaps or more in a contest. It does not matter if the opposing defense is strong or weak; this is the standard scoreline across the board. The market, therefore, tends to overvalue Miami against the leakiest units. Tannehill has covered barely one-third (20-33-1 ATS, 37.7 percent) of all games versus opposing defenses allowing 20.0 points or more entering a matchup, posting 20.8 on average. Squaring off against stingier competition, Tannehill leads Miami to 19.8 points per tilt and is 9-7-1 ATS.

Josh McCown, Buffalo Bills

ATS Record: 36-41-2 (46.8 percent)
ATS Margin: -2.1
Avg. Line: 4.2

The Jets are McCown’s eighth different NFL team. Mastering specific systems and schemes is difficult under such constant shuffling. So is rising up and taking advantage of inefficient pass defenses. McCown is just 8-17 ATS (32.0 percent) against squads surrendering greater than 7.1 yards per passing attempt on the season. He leads his team to just 20.3 points per game in this situation.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

ATS Record: 20-20-1 (50.0 percent)
ATS Margin: -0.7
Avg. Line: 0.6

Marcus Mariota does a lot of things right, even topping the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ big-time throw rankings in 2017. Although his interception rate is a healthy 2.7 percent, his worst betting performances come against those adept at picking off passes. Mariota is just 10-14 SU and 8-15-1 ATS against opponents averaging 0.75 interceptions or more per game for the year. The Titans kick off a "pick ‘em" on average, losing by 3.7 points per game. Sixty percent (21 of 35) of Mariota’s career interceptions thrown have occurred under these conditions.

Best and Worst NFC Quarterbacks ATS
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