Bottom Line: Tom Brady & The Patriots Will Win A Lot

Tom Brady

Thursday, May 4, 2017 3:35 PM GMT

The New England Patriots are Super Bowl favorites for the third season in a row at +425 odds. With Tom Brady under center, the Pats are a near-lock for a double-digit win season. Check out these stats.

Advanced lines show the Patriots favored in every game for the 2017 NFL season. Oddsmakers set their win total at 11 games. Expect plenty of action on the over. Not only are the Pats a public team, they play in the watered-down AFC East, have most of their key players returning, and are a perennial contender until Tom Brady retires. The five-time Super Bowl champ has led the team to a winning season every year as a starter.

Fact: The Patriots have won 11 regular-season games or more in 12 of 15 years with Brady under center for more than half the season. Last year, the 12-time Pro Bowler missed the first four contests to suspension, yet still piloted the team to an 11-1 mark. In 2001, Brady led the franchise to an 11-4 record in 15 starts, missing a potential 12-win season due to sitting out the opener. Outside of the 2008 season where Brady missed all but one game to a knee injury, the Pats have failed to reach 11 wins three times: 2009 (10-6), 2005 (10-6), and 2002 (9-7).

 Wins You Can Count On

Brady has won 82 percent of his regular-season games when favored in the betting market. When laying -5 points or more, New England is 119-11 SU with him under center. Crazy. Minus Week 17, which oddsmakers skip over in setting advanced lines, the Pats are chalk by 5 points or more in nine of 15 contests: W1 Chiefs (-7), W3 Texans (-9), W4 Panthers (-9), W6 Jets (-9.5), W7 Falcons (-6.5), W8 Chargers (-12.5), W12 Dolphins (-9), W13 Bills (-7), W16 Bills (-11.5). By the way, the Pats host the Jets in the final game of they year, so we can assume they will be double-digit chalk come kickoff.

 Games That Could Go Either Way               

The Pats match up with the NFC South this year in out-of-conference play. Early-season road trips to New Orleans (+4.5) in Week 2 and Tampa (+3) in Week 5 could prove tricky. Good teams are often most vulnerable early in the season while still working out the kinks. Knowing head coach Bill Belichick, he's already got a game plan drawn up. A Week 14 date at rival Miami (+4) may be a win-and-you-are-in playoff meeting for the Dolphins. Expect a battle.

 

Real Trouble Spots

The Pats have a nasty scheduling quirk in the middle of the season, which will hurt them against two AFC West contenders. In Week 10, they travel to Denver (+3) off the bye to play in primetime. Including the playoffs, Brady is just 3-7 SU and ATS at Mile High. The following week, New England again plays at high-altitude versus the up-and-coming Raiders (+1.5) in Mexico City. Home-field advantage for the postseason will likely be up for grabs in New England’s Week 15 date at Pittsburgh (+1.5). Brady is 5-2 SU and ATS at Heinz Field, but this is coin-flip encounter most of the time. The line has been within a field goal in four of his seven starts.

09/07/2017 (Thu) Kansas City 8:30 PM W

09/17/17 at New Orleans 1:00 PM W

09/24/17 Houston 1:00 PM W

10/01/17 Carolina 1:00 PM W

10/05/2017 (Thu) at Tampa Bay 8:25 PM W

10/15/17 at NY Jets 1:00 PM W

10/22/17 Atlanta  8:30 PM W

10/29/17 LA Chargers 1:00 PM W

11/12/17 at Denver 8:30 PM L

11/19/17 at Oakland 4:25 PM W

11/26/17 Miami  1:00 PM W

12/03/17 at Buffalo 1:00 PM W

12/11/2017 (Mon) at Miami 8:30 PM W

12/17/17 at Pittsburgh 4:25 PM L

12/24/17 Buffalo 1:00 PM W

12/31/17 NY Jets 1:00 PM W

 Bottom Line

The Pats are going to win, and win a lot. Unless Brady goes down, 12 wins or more appears a good bet. New England owns one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. At worst, the bet pushes at 11 wins.

 

Check Out An In-Depth Analysis Of Patriots 2017 Schedule