Bold Week 10 NFL Picks on Sleepers You Don't Wanna Miss

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 13, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

We’ve got some bold sleepers for your week 10 NFL picks to spot. We mean really bold, with some unlikely upsets called on the cards all with an AFC North touch. Yikes. Good luck to us.

Jaguars +6 to Cover
Ravens are coming off the bye week, eager to make a concentrated push down the stretch with just 8 games left to salvage a 2-6 SU start on the season. Odds makers would have the Ravens as the favourites when they host the Jaguars (2-6 SU, 0-4 away) for several obvious reasons: Ravens are well rested and have home advantage over a Jaguars side that is yet to win on the road and boasts a meagre 2-6 SU mark. But so do the Ravens, lest everybody’s forgotten. This isn’t the same side that gave the Patriots a run for its money in the playoffs last season. This is a side that is severely hobbled by injuries, limping through the schedule with as much enthusiasm as a banged up suitcase tripping by on the carousel.

It’s a big mistake to take this market for granted. The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS this season with a 3-point losing margin, while the Jaguars are 4-4 ATS with an 8-point losing margin on average, arguably skewed by the hefty loss to New England. Four of Jaguars’ games on the season featured losses of five points or less, three of which were determined by a field goal. Six of Ravens’ games were decided by six points or less, including a 23-20 win over the Steelers.

Based on those numbers, we feel the Jaguars have a shot of keeping this game closer than the odds would suggest, if not even go so far as to mastermind the upset. Like we said, it’s a bold NFL pick not intended for the fainthearted.

Free NFL Picks: Jaguars +6 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Browns +5.5 to Cover
The AFC North showdown between the Browns and Steelers could go either way depending on which quarterbacks start the game, so pay close attention to the news. Josh McCown, who missed the last game with an injury, is the starter unless he’s ruled out once again before game time. Big Ben suffered an injury in last week’s win over the Raiders but he’s not ruled himself out of this Sunday’s game, as evinced by his limited practice during the week. He might just start this game after all. In any event, the Browns are 4-5 ATS with a 7-point losing margin on average. Four of McCown’s six starts this season have been decided by seven points or less, three of which were determined by a field goal including a 33-30 win in overtime over the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns may not have much to play for in the broad spectrum of the season, but they have an opportunity to be spoilers here for the Steelers and their wildcard bid. Big Ben will obviously improve his side’s chances but last season the Steelers split the series with the Browns with each side winning at home. Steelers won just 30-27 at Heinz Field. Granted, the Browns then had Brian Hoyer at the helm. It’s a different looking Browns team with Josh McCown. Still, the Steelers are just 5-4 SU on the season and 5-3-1 ATS with a 2.7-point margin of victory. It’s not unreasonable to assume they have a shot as the 5.5-point underdogs to keep it close. Possibly even mastermind the upset if Landry Jones does start the game instead of Big Ben.

Free NFL Picks: Browns +5.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Texans +10.5 to Cover
Not being funny here, but Brian Hoyer could be the X-factor in this game. Seriously. Not X-factor in the sense of an elite quarterback such as Tom Brady but an ACE up Houston’s sleeve given his circumstance with the Browns last season. Lest everybody’s forgotten, he led the Browns to a 24-3 win in Cincinnati – then matched as the 6-point-ish road underdogs. Such intimate knowledge of a team could prove deciding.

The Texans are coming off a much-needed bye week, putting the Ryan Mallet saga behind them and allowing Hoyer to come to terms with his role as the starter should give him a sense of stability in the position. Less fear of losing it because of one or two bad plays or stymied drives means less pressure.

Finally, the Texans were dealt a bit of a lifeline this week in the news that Andrew Luck is out for 2-to-6 weeks with a lacerated kidney and abdominal injury. Texans are second in the AFC South, a game behind the Colts with a 3-5 SU record. If the AFC South title was in question a few weeks ago, it’s even more so now with practically every team in the field having a theoretical shot at it and just 8 games left on the season to pull off the feat, all while 40-year-old  Matt Hasselbeck attempts to keep the Colts abreast of the race. That’s called incentive.

Of course, the Bengals are great this season, undefeated and all and surprising all and sundry….la, la, la… but can they really go 9-0 SU?

To be fair, they could. Texans haven’t impressed too many NFL bettors or experts that so few are backing them on their NFL picks. But, precisely for that reason alone we’re considering going against the grain. Sometimes those games that look like certain lock bets prove otherwise. The Bengals only just accomplished a franchise-best 7-0 SU start two weeks ago. Then set a new franchise-best 8-0 SU start to the season with a win over the Browns on Thursday.

A third attempt at a franchise-best might go as bookies predict it will with the Bengals winning, but laying 10.5-points with the Bengals might be just too many points. In fact, the line has dropped from 13-points at opening doors to 10.5-points suggesting there are many NFL bettors that agree with this notion.

Obviously, that’s not the bold NFL pick. The really bold NFL pick on this game is to back the upset entirely, with the Texans winning. Yup, it’s a crazy notion, but that is what bold means: predictions that appear unreasonable but aren't improbable.  Lest you’ve forgotten, Dandy Andy’s record under the primetime lights of Monday Night Football is hardly a ringing endorsement.

Free NFL Picks: Texans +10.5 (-105) at Bet365 and (if you are so bold) Texans SU +445 at BetOnline

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