Bills vs. Patriots Week 4 Predictions & Free Picks

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 10:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 27, 2016 10:25 PM UTC

The Patriots have dominated the Bills at home over the last decade or more. With the quarterback questions for the Patriots, many books are staying on the sideline until later in the week, however, our expert capper is confident and shares his free pick inside.


So, who saw the domination of the Houston Texans coming by the New England Patriots with their 3rd string quarterback? Just goes to show how some trends are there for a reason, such as New England being nearly unbeatable in Gillette Stadium. With that, we turn to their Week 4 matchup with the Buffalo Bills, a team that has not had much luck against the Patriots in the last decade or more. With the quarterback questions for the Patriots, many books are staying on the sideline until later in the week, but as I’ve stated in other articles it is good to have an account with a book that offers early lines. For this game, both top rated sportsbooks, BetOnline and Heritage has posted a line for bettors with New England as the early 4.5-point favorites (editor's note: at the time of publishing lines were taken down), while the other books are on the sidelines for now.

When I say that the Patriots have dominated the Bills lately, I’m not kidding. As Rich Hill of so easily compiled, the Patriots are 28-4 against the Bills under head coach, Bill Belichick. The last three years that the Bills were able to come up with a win against the Pats they actually went on to win the Super Bowl. Furthermore, the Patriots have beat the Bills by 5 points or more at home in 12 of their last 15 games, with one of those exceptions being a game in Week 17 that the Patriots rested all of their starters. Bill knows Bills.

But the last week must give some hope for Bill’s fans, as the new defensive play caller, Dennis Thurman, forced Carson Palmer into one of his worst quarterback rated games in his career. In that game, the Bills intercepted Carson Palmer 4 times and sacked him five. That hope will be short-lived; however, if they can’t get better quarterback play themselves. Tyrod Taylor put in a 14 for 25 line for 119 passing yards with an interception and no touchdowns. This win was all on the defense in this game.

My question about Tyrod Taylor is if he can do any better in this game against a Patriots’ defense that is feeling it as well, shutting out the Texans at home last week and allowing just a 60.6 quarterback rating to Brock Osweiler. I have my doubts, especially on the road against the Patriots with the defense knowing they have to pick up the slack until Prince Brady returns.

With my performance last week, I think I will stick with the 15-year trends here and back the Patriots at home. Sometimes being right doesn’t have to be creative. Grab that early line and take the Patriots at -4.5 at BetOnline as an early Week 4 NFL Pick.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

2016 NFL Record: 5-7, -2.65 Units

Free NFL Pick: New England Patriots Cover
Best Line Offered: No Lines Available At The Moment

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