Bills vs. Patriots Monday Night NFL Picks: Our Experts Final Thoughts

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 23, 2015 12:31 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 23, 2015 12:31 PM UTC

What are the best approaches from the basic and popular Point Spread (ATS), Moneyline (M/L) & Totals for this primetime affair between Bills & Pats? Let's get some NFL picks for you!

Odds Overview
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
: The Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) head to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts (Weather Forecast: Clear Skies, 22°, Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph, 52% Humidity) tonight (Monday) to face the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (9-0 SU, 5-2-2 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (72-48-6 ATS at Home) in a massive AFC East showdown and what could be a very exciting Primetime game with the Bills and their always jolly Head Coach Rex Ryan feeling good and coming in on a 2-game Win streak. Current NFL odds have the host Patriots as 7-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year line here was also at Patriots -7—almost everywhere with the Total (Points) posted at 48 (Pinnacle). In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Patriots are healthy -330 favorites with the Bills priced at +289 on the takeback now as Road underdogs.


L6 Final Scores Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium
2014—Bills 17 Patriots 9 (NE -5) Total Points Scored: 26 (U)
2013—Patriots 34 Bills 20 (NE -7½) Total Points Scored: 54 (O)
2012—Patriots 34 Bills 31 (NE -13½) Total Points Scored: 65 (O)
2011—Patriots 49 Bils 49-21 (NE -10½) Total Points Scored: 68 (O)
2010—Patriots 38 Bills 20 (NE -14½) Total Points Scored: 58 (O)
2009—Patriots 25 Bills 24 (NE-13) Total Points Scored: 49 (O)


Why the Patriots Money Line? (in List Form, Please, Kind Sir)
The Patriots -330 (Pinnacle) is a fair price and backing them in some manner (Parlay, Straight Bet, Starting Open Ended Parlay For NFL Week 12 With Patriots linked to Thanksgiving Day games) seems solid for a number of reasons.
1—This team is Undefeated. Zero loss teams (and Boxers) that can like to preserve the 0.
2—The game is at Home in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts where the Patriots are a mind-boggling 41-4 SU (91.1%) in their L44 Home games over the L6 seasons including a 5-0 mark this year so far. 
3—New England is still seeking that precious Homefield Advantage for the AFC Playoffs and a Loss would potentially thrust them into a tie, meaning their whole goal here is to just Win, baby.
4— Throwing out the last game these two played here at Gillette Stadium—a Week 17 affair the Bills won after New England had already clinched Homefield advantage in the AFC and didn’t want players to get hurt—New England is 5-1 in its L6 games SU against their AFC East rivals Buffalo, with the lone loss that one game in Week 17 last season where the Patriots gave a Rat’s Ass about winning and prioritized safety and future endurance. They won the Super Bowl.
5—New England is 16-8-2 ATS in its L26 Home games over the last 2+ seasons (66.7%).
6—The Patriots are 65-18 SU in their L83 games (78.3%). They simply Win. And with Brady and guys like his buddy, TE Rob Gronkowski, Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and Kevin Dorsey, Aaron Dobson and Brandon Gibson further down the Patriots Depth Chart.


Why Back the New England Patriots at Both -7 and -6½?
New England is 5-2-2 ATS this season and is 14-6-2 ATS as a Home Favorite in their L22 at Gillette Stadium (70%), a role they almost always assume. Patriots QB Tom Brady (72-48-6 ATS at Home) is also really good at Home where he feels comfortable, racking up an even 60.0% ATS mark for New England betting backers over the L126 games. And Tom Tom wants to play another 10 years in his head. And laying the ½ point and getting a straight bet for a fair amount at this number is Wise, as no doubt the Patriots will be up a clean 7 at some point, and nobody wants to get nothing of a side bet after 3 hours of watching and stressing and a 27-20 or 37-30 type Final Scoreline is obviously entirely possible. They want to win this one going away.


Why Back the Over 47½ Here on Monday Night Football When it Will Be Freezing Cold?
Throwing out last season’s statistically insignificant and reality-throwing-off result in Foxborough, the L5 games here at Foxboro have seen 54, 65, 68, 58 and 49 points scored—5-0 ATS Over—for an average of 56.8 ppg in those 5 meetings in this entertaining series. So, if the Patriots can get their standard 4 TDs (28 points) and a couple FGs (6) from Stephen Gostkowski, and if the Bills can score even just 2 TDs (14 points) and rack up 3 FGs (9), then that’s a 34-23 final with a medium- to fast-pace and 57 points and almost 10 over the current consensus Total for this game (48, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). It could start slow, but Over it is. In the meeting at Ralph Wilson in Buffalo earlier this season, New England rolled 37-22 in a game which went well Over the posted 44 Total and the Over is 7-3-1 ATS the L11 Buffalo games played in Week 11 and 5-2-1 ATS in the L8 Patriots games played in Week 11. But probably the biggest and most significant Trend here also points toward the Over with the Over 7-2 ATS the L9 in this series including that meaningless “nobody cares” Under in Week 17 last season.


Overview and How Do the Patriots Try To Replace Edelman’s Productivity?
Last Sunday in Week 10 in their Win against the Giants at MetLife, Patriots WR Julian Edelman (Foot) suffered a Foot Injury and will be having Surgery and is out for the season—a massive blow for New England which also lost RB Dion Lewis (Left Leg) for the year earlier this month. So who will Head Coach Bill Belichick and the Pats go to to try to replace Edelman? More dodes of the talented Amendola and LaFell and more backup TE throws, some targets to second- and third-tier WRs like Dorsey, Dobson and Gibson and a little more RB LeGarrette Blount. My sources (my cat) tell me that 22° is really Cold all of a sudden for an NFL game and hands and feet and the football are greatly affected at this well-below Freezing (32° Fahrenheit) temperature forecast for Foxborough, Massachusetts on Monday Night, but New England lives there and Buffalo is even farther north so the temperatures will be stifling but DBs stay further off receivers and Defensive players hit a little less hard when it’s freezing cold out. The Patriots (303 PF-169 PA) s are a dink-and-dunk team that moves the ball up-field like water downstream and they should once again get out to a double-digit lead by Halftime (Patriots -3½, Coral) and roll to another big win, remembering their undefeated 9-0 mark and that Week 17 game last year where they didn’t have to try against the Bills (231 PF-207 PA) at Home. Not this time.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 23
NFL WEEK 11 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FREE PICKS: Patriots -7 -105 (Bet365), Patriots -6½ -115 (Betfair), Patriots Moneyline -330 (Pinnacle), Patriots 1st Half -3½ (Coral), Over 47½ (888sport)

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