Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Sunday, October 25th – 1:00 ET at Metlife Stadium
What a treat. The 4-2 Buffalo Bills fresh off their Monday evening loss at home to the Chiefs get the bounce-back spot of all bounce-back spots by traveling to MetLife to take on the woeful Jets who were shut out last week in Miami.
Will the Bills Cover the Spread?
This has been somewhat of a turbulent market so far, opening at 10 points, it was up to 13.5 at points this week, but now the top sportsbooks seem to have settled around 12 points for the Bills to be favored by. As it turns out the Bills were favorites with a -17 spread against the Dolphins last September, they won by 10 and failed to cover the spread.
The Bills have covered the spread in 3 of their 6 games this year, when they do cover it’s been by an average of three points meaning they’d need to win by 15 points to carry on that stat, but their failures to cover the spread have been significant nearly 30 points margin against the Titans and 15 against the Chiefs last week. When they fail, they fail spectacularly.
However, they’re going up against a Jets team who haven’t covered the spread once this season, whose closest loss has been 9 points, against Denver at home on a Thursday night when they started Brett Rypien. They are shambolic.
The Bills have looked good on offense on the whole last year, the addition of Stefon Diggs has helped Josh Allen improve his accuracy and has given him an elite route-running target who has a knack of getting himself free. Cole Beasley is usually free on short routes and John Brown, when fit, adds another deep threat for Allen to target. It looks like Brown might miss out again this week, while rookie Gabriel Davis has filled in well in his absence.
They returned to their two-headed backfield on a wet Monday night with Zack Moss back from injury. Devin Singletary still got the majority of the carries and looked the better of the two but Moss mixed in and this is the easiest game they’ll get all season to show their worth.
Will the Jets Get to Double-Figures?
To say this season has been a failure for the New York Jets would be an understatement. It’s been an utter disgrace. They’ve lost every game, they’ve failed to cover the spread in every game, they’ve got a point differential of -110, -19 PER GAME this season, they’ve scored 75 points, 12.5 per game with a high of 28 in that TNF games against the Broncos, and provided the first shut-out of the season last week.
It looks like Joe Flacco will be starting again this week with Darnold carrying a shoulder injury still, and frankly, there’s no reason you’d put him in and risk injuring him more. That’s enough reason to avoid this game, he took a 26-yard sack last week and shouldn’t be anywhere near an NFL field.
Jamison Crowder will get targeted a lot and should get a few catches… Jeff Smith has been their most targeted player in recent weeks though finishing with a magnificent 1 for 8 yards from 4 targets last week. They did welcome back Breshad Perriman for his first Jets start last week and he led the team in yardage, so I guess that’s a slight positive?
Frank Gore leads the backfield with La’Mical Perine as the alternate. Head coach Adam Gase has said he wants to get Perine more and more through the season so he should get more than his 7 carries last week.
Will the Bills Ease Up?
It feels horrible to take the Bills to cover such a high spread, but there’s not really any other option here. There’s no way anyone with even a little sanity would be taking the Jets to cover 12 points. But at the same time I don’t exactly feel confident backing the Bills to cover double-digits, so I won’t be.
I’m looking at the total for this NFL pick, it opened at 48 points and is down to 45 at some of the best sportsbooks. I still don’t think that’s low enough to be honest. The Bills have the Patriots on deck and I think there’s a good chance that if they get a lead they’ll sit back and maybe rest starters. I don’t see the Jets scoring more than 10 points and I think the Bills will be happy with mid-20s in this one, get out unscathed and head to the bigger games next week.
Best Bet: Total UNDER 45.5 points at -108 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)