Top Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Picks for NFL Divisional Round

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 21, 2022 9:47 AM EST • 2 min 33 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills jukes a New England Patriots defender. Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images via AFP.

The Kansas Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs as 2-point home favorites. Here are my best prop picks for Bills-Chiefs.

It's the rematch we've all been hoping for, but it's happening one round earlier than expected. With Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen leading the offenses, this game will be full of fireworks. Buffalo defeated the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in Week 5 as a 3-point underdog.

Here are my top prop picks for the NFL Divisional Round matchup between the Chiefs and the Bills (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Picks

Josh Allen rushing yards: Over 50.5 (-110) ?????Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns: Under 2.5 (-140) ????Most receiving yards Divisional Round: Stefon Diggs (+1400) ???

Top Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Predictions

Allen Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110)

Allen gained a career-high 763 rushing yards this season. He ran for 66 yards on just six carries in last week's wild-card game against the New England Patriots. The star signal-caller has rushed for more than 50 yards in four of his last five playoff games.

This number should have opened slightly higher, considering Allen ran for 59 yards in Week 5 and 88 yards in last year's playoff matchup vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to play man-to-man coverage, which created several running lanes for Allen in the past. It's nearly impossible to imagine something different will happen in this matchup.

The most favorable number can be found at DraftKings, at which the total is 50.5 and the juice is -110. FanDuel has him at 52.5 rushing yards, with the juice set at -114 to the Over.

Mahomes Under 2.5 passing TDs (-140)

Mahomes averaged 2.17 passing touchdowns per game during the regular season but threw for five against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. However, the quarterback recorded just two passing touchdowns against the Bills in Week 5, and 2.5 is too high for a matchup with Buffalo.

I was expecting this number to open at 1.5 with juice to the Over. As long as the number remains at 2.5 with juice to the Under, I would be all over this prop. People will be excited about the plus money on the Over after his performance last week, but he faces a much tougher opponent this game.

The Bills allowed only seven red-zone passing touchdowns this season, which was the best mark in the league. In fact, no team is better at defending the pass in the red zone, as the Bills also led the league in completions (29) and passing yards (191) allowed in that space.

FanDuel offers the best odds for this prop, with Mahomes at -140 for the Under. At DraftKings, the same prop is juiced to -175.

Diggs most receiving yards Divisional Round (+1400)

Diggs had 1,225 receiving yards on 103 receptions this season, and he caught three passes for 60 yards in the blowout of the Patriots last week.

The wideout recorded two catches for 69 yards in a Week 5 contest during which Allen needed to throw the ball only 26 times. Plus, seemingly nobody wants this rematch more than Diggs.

https://twitter.com/diannaESPN/status/1483971106671407112

Ja'Marr Chase obliterated the Chiefs' defense to the tune of 11 catches for 266 yards in Week 17, and Spagnuolo refused to make any adjustments to slow down the rookie during that game. Diggs is among the NFL's most proficient route-runners, so he'll find himself open on quite a few plays against man coverage.

Diggs is one of the better candidates to post a massive receiving total, and I just don't see a better deal than getting an All-Pro receiver at +1400 in a game that should produce lots of points. That +1400 number is at FanDuel. The shortest odds are posted at BetMGM, which has him at +1100.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com's community forums and betting tools.

Bills-Chiefs prop picks made on 1/21/2022 at 12:08 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.