Bills vs. Ravens Picks, Predictions NFL Week 4: Jackson, Allen Clash in Marquee Matchup
Star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson lead the way into one of the NFL's marquee matchups of Week 4. Check out our top picks below as the Buffalo Bills visit the Baltimore Ravens.
The Super Bowl-favorite Bills returned to Earth with a 21-19 road loss at the rival Miami Dolphins last week. That surprising upset followed a 31-10 road win over the Los Angeles Rams and a 41-7 rout of the Tennessee Titans, both on primetime.
The Ravens' lone loss of the season also came at the hands of the Dolphins. Baltimore has a 24-9 win over the New York Jets and a 37-26 victory over the New England Patriots on its resume.
Check out our top NFL Week 4 picks here.
Here are our Bills-Ravens NFL picks for Week 4 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Ravens Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 2, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Weather: 61 degrees, 85% chance of precipitation, 14-mph northeast wind
Bills vs. Ravens Odds
Bills vs. Ravens Odds Analysis
Bettors are split on this spread with 55% of the tickets on Buffalo but 54% of the handle on Baltimore. As a result, the spread has moved from Bills -4 to -3 as of Sunday morning.
The Over/Under has moved even more noticeably, dropping from 55 to 50.5 despite 78% of the tickets and 67% of the handle backing the Over in the marquee clash.
Bills vs. Ravens Picks
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Bills vs. Ravens ATS Pick
Ravens +3 (-110) ★★★★
If you only looked at the box score from Miami's 21-19 win over Buffalo, it would seem more like the Dolphins should have suffered a double-digit loss.
Buffalo held possession for 40:40 compared to Miami's 19:20. The Bills also logged 16 more first downs, 285 more total yards, and they ran 51 more offensive plays. However, the true problem given that dominance is debatable. Is it Buffalo scoring only 19 points? Of the defense allowing 21 points despite being on the field for limited action?
Now the Bills get a tough test from Lamar Jackson, who's on an MVP pace in more ways than one.
When Jackson was named the MVP in 2019, he began the year with 863 passing yards and a 7-0 touchdown-interception ratio. Now he's registered 749 passing yards and a league-high 10 passing touchdowns. He's the first player during the Super Bowl era with three touchdown passes and 100-plus rushing yards in consecutive games. Jackson is also the second player since 1950 with 10-plus touchdown passes and two-plus rushing touchdowns over his first three outings of the season.
He's a nuisance to defend, and Jackson will be the primary reason the Ravens cover.
Bills vs. Ravens O/U Pick
Under 51 (-107) ★★★
Jackson is on pace for a career year, largely due to his ability to pick apart blitzes.
He ranks first against the blitz in 2022 with a 99 QBR, first in yards per attempt (12.7), and the passer is tied for the league's best touchdown-to-interception ratio at 6-0. That's a significant improvement across the board after he ranked in the bottom 10 in all three categories during the 2021 season.
However, Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier won't blitz Jackson often while attempting to protect his injury-ravaged secondary that's missing its best cornerback and top safety. Buffalo's defense ranks in the bottom four in the percentage of snaps spent in man coverage. Jackson will likely need to dink and dunk his way down the field against a soft zone.
Buffalo will also probably try to bleed the clock to help out its injury-plagued defense.
Bills vs. Ravens Prop Pick
Dobbins Under 38.5 rushing yards (-135) ★★★
Dobbins ran the ball seven times for 23 yards during his first game back after a long rehab for a gruesome ACL injury. His name has already surfaced on the injury report, as he was limited in practice Wednesday with a chest issue.
Lamar Jackson is the only Ravens player with more than 80 rushing yards in 2022. Expect him to shoulder much of the load again.
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Bills-Ravens picks made 9/30/2022 at 6:07 a.m. ET
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