The battle for the state of New York (in the AFC) kicks off Week 9 Thursday between the Bills and Jets. Both teams have been playing better than expected through the first half. We have a player prop pick.
Since making his Jets debut earlier this season, Seferian-Jenkins, a tight end, has been one of the steadier hands in the Jets’ receiving game. It’s not that surprising because of the lack of skill players for the Jets, but Seferian-Jenkins is also putting up a nice catch rate and seems to be a lock for targets in the red zone for the Jets.
At 37½, his total for this one is a bit high, but considering that the Bills have not been great defending against opposing tight ends lately, I think it’s the perfect play for Thursday night. The Jets will likely have to throw the ball a lot in this one, especially if they get down early, and if the Bills are taking away the downfield game the middle of the field is a great place for us and Seferian-Jenkins.
Over their last four games straddling their bye week, the Bills have allowed a total of 366 yards to opposing tight ends, including a 158-yard effort by the Bucs two weeks ago. That’s an average of 91.5 per week, which would obviously be more than enough for us to cash the 'over' on ASJ this week.
Seferian-Jenkins has 29 targets in the Jets’ last four games and he has caught 24 of those balls thrown his way for a total of 124 yards. While the yards totals aren’t that big, I still expect 5-8 targets for the big tight end Thursday. Considering the Bills have allowed 17 receptions for 236 yards to tight ends over the last two weeks, I like ASJ on the 'over.'