Bills-Jets Not Likely to Light Up Scoreboard Thursday Night

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David Schwab

Wednesday, November 1, 2017 1:49 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2017 1:49 PM UTC

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 9 with an in-state AFC East battle between the Bills and the Jets at MetLife Stadium in an 8:25 (ET) start on NFL Network. Buffalo will be going for the season sweep.

Free NFL Pick: Under 43Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+4, 43)

The Bills have been one of the biggest surprises in the AFC this season at 5-2 through their first seven games. They have also been one of the top betting teams in the NFL this year at 4-1-2 against the spread. Buffalo easily covered as a slight 1.5-point home favorite in last Sunday’s 34-14 victory against Oakland. The total went OVER the 47.5-point closing line and it has gone OVER in three of its last five games. Buffalo comes into this game with an even 1-1-1 record ATS in three previous road games.

With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, the Bills are ranked 29th in the NFL in passing and 25th in total yards gained. Charles Clay has been his top target with 20 receptions for 258 yards, but Buffalo is hoping that the recent addition of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin in a shocking Tuesday trade with Carolina will help to turn things around in the passing game. Buffalo remains one of the best rushing teams in the league behind LeSean McCoy. The veteran back has gained 521 yards on 137 carries with three rushing touchdowns.

New York fell to 3-5 on the year with a tough 25-20 loss to Atlanta last Sunday. It did manage to cover as a 6.5-point home underdog to improve to 5-2-1 ATS. The Jets have now covered ATS in five of their last six games with the other contest ending as a PUSH. The total went OVER the 43-point closing line against the Falcons and it has gone OVER in three of their last five contests. New York is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season at home.

Despite the SU losing record, the Jets have been able to play teams tough lately. Recent losses to New England, Miami and Atlanta were by a combined 15 points as underdogs in all three games. Josh McCown has done a respectable job in leading this offense at quarterback with 1,840 yards passing and 12 passing touchdowns. While on paper New York’s defense is 26th in the league in yards allowed and 27th against the run, this unit has posted 13 takeaways this season.


Game Betting Trends
  • The Bills have failed to cover ATS in four of their last five games against the division, but they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games played on Thursday.
  • The Jets have compiled a 3-1-1 record ATS in their last five games against the AFC East and they have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four matchups against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games against a division opponent.
  • Going back over the last 11 meetings in this AFC East clash, the home team is 8-3 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six games between these two in-state rivals.


The Verdict

Buffalo continues to keep pace with New England in the AFC East title race with solid play on both sides of the ball, but it could be in for a struggle on Thursday night against a very familiar division foe. I would actually lean towards the Jets at home in this one, but my top NFL pick based on the betting lines at SBR Odds is the UNDER.

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