Bills & Jaguars Will Find a Way to Score Often So Grab 'Over' 41 With Your NFL Picks

Steven Suarez

Friday, October 23, 2015 10:45 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 10:45 PM UTC

London plays host to another NFL game this weekend, this time between the Bills and Jaguars. Which NFL picks should we like for the total?

Odds Overview
The Bills are clear-cut 4.5-point favorites on the NFL odds board across all of the major sportsbooks, and we don't anticipate seeing much more movement on those lines ahead of kickoff.

We're doing our diligence in preparation for a total play in this breakdown, however, so let's move on. The O/U is currently at 41 points, making this game between Buffalo and Jacksonville the lowest-scoring forecasted game for Week 7 of the season. 


Buffalo Bills
Injuries have gotten in the way for the Buffalo Bills, and they're set to be without starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor and number one wideout Sammy Watkins in Week 7. E.J. Manuel will pick up another start, one week after falling short in his quest to guide Buffalo to a win last week. 

The Bills were, however, boosted by the return of LeSean McCoy, and he had a very effective game in spite of the team losing 34-21 to Cincinnati at home. He ran 17 times for 90 yards and a touchdown and added a couple receptions, but it wasn't enough, as Buffalo's defense couldn't stop Andy Dalton and company. Watkins left the game early after scoring the touchdown, and has already been ruled out for this Sunday's game in London.

Overall, we find the Bills have averaged 24.2 points per game (8th in the NFL), while allowing 23.2 (16th) points per game. It's been a disappointing start for the Buffalo defense, a unit that was expected to be one of the most dominant out there, particularly with defensive-minded Rex Ryan in charge now.


Jacksonville Jaguars
Through seven weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars only have one win to their name. They beat the Dolphins by three in Week 2, but have since lost four in a row, falling to New England, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and then Houston last week. Jacksonville had no answers for Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins, who both had very effective games. The Jaguars couldn't have been pleased with their defensive effort in giving up 31 points to a Houston offense that hasn't been performing all that well in the grand scheme of things.

Looking from further out, the statistics are right in line with what you'd expect out of a one-win team. Jacksonville is 30th in scoring offense and 30th in scoring defense, which really tells you all you need to know. 

While the results haven't been there for the Jaguars again this season, you can tell that this team is improving and that they're building something for the future. Bortles has shown some strides in his second season and he's got some good targets in the passing game, with rookie T.J Yeldon (when healthy) offering some solid play out of the backfield too. 


Betting Analysis
Call us crazy, but we think this game has a good chance of falling above the posted total.

The Bills are without Taylor and Watkins, but we've still seen them have success offensively here and there, and the same can be said about the Jaguars. It doesn't hurt that Jacksonville is ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring defense, having allowed 29.3 points per game through the first seven weeks of the season.

It's not like the Buffalo defense has been lights out either (23.2 points per game allowed, 16th in the NFL), and the Jaguars offense has been sneakily effective, with Bortles and the likes of Robinson, Hurns and a now-healthy Julius Thomas in the fold. Jacksonville hasn't been afraid to chuck the ball, so we'll keep seeing this offense making big plays, most likely in catch-up mode more often than not.

With all of that said, we're going to be on the OVER as one of our NFL picks this weekend.

NFL Picks: OVER 41 at 5Dimes

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