Biggest Spreads & Picks for NFL's Week 10

Matthew Jordan

Friday, November 7, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

A decent 2-2 record on the three biggest spreads of Week 9. Hit on Oakland covering at Seattle as the week's biggest dog as well as Jacksonville +11 at Cincinnati. Missed on the 49ers and Jets. Here are the Pinnacle top NFL spread odds for Sunday.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+10.5 on NFL odds)
I believe Oakland is the biggest home underdog in NFL Odds this season. It's the third time Denver has been a double-digit favorite already. In Week 2 at home against Kansas City the Broncos were -13 at sportsbooks and won 24-17. In Week 6 at the New York Jets, Denver was -10 and won 31-17. It's also the third time that winless Oakland has been a double-digit underdog. The Raiders were getting 13.5 points last week in Seattle but only lost 30-24. In Week 3 at New England the Raiders covered as 14-point dogs, losing 16-9. Obviously Denver is the vastly more talented team here, but it's worth asking if the team will come out rather flat. How fired up can you be off a three-game stretch against (presumably) Super Bowl contenders San Francisco, San Diego and New England? The Broncos were housed last week by the Patriots. Peyton Manning threw for 438 yards but it took him 57 attempts and he was picked off twice. He has now thrown at least two TD passes in an incredible 14 straight games. The Raiders have scored more than 14 points twice all season. 

NFL free pick: Denver. Manning won't let the Broncos look past this game. In addition, Denver has covered its past seven at sportsbooks following a loss. Oakland has covered once in its past nine at home.

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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10 at sportsbooks)
I expect Baltimore will be a top choice in many players' Survivor Pools this week because undoubtedly Denver already has been used. Sitting in last in the very competitive AFC North, the Ravens can't afford to slip up here because following next week's bye comes a tough stretch: at New Orleans, vs. San Diego and at Miami. Baltimore did get some crushing news this week when top cornerback Jimmy Smith was ruled out for the season with a foot injury. He was hurt in the Oct. 26 loss to Cincinnati and thought to just  miss a couple of weeks, but Smith had surgery Thursday. In the Ravens' first game without Smith, Ben Roethlisberger torched Baltimore for six touchdown passes. The Ravens had given up the 27th-most passing yards this season even before Smith went down with an injury. Tennessee has lost two straight and six of seven. The Titans, who come off a bye week, will again start sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. He was pretty solid in Week 8 loss to Houston, going 27 of 41 for 299 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Tennessee can't run the ball much so Mettenberger may have to put it up 40-plus times again.

NFL free pick: Baltimore, but I'd take an alternate line of 9.5 points that sportsbooks like 5Dimes offer. The Titans have covered only once in their past seven overall.

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New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10 on NFL betting lines)
I think it's officially fair to say the New York Giants are going to miss the playoffs for a third straight season and fifth time in the past six years. I think it's also going to mean the end for Tom Coughlin, the NFL's oldest coach. The G-Men laid a major egg at home on Monday night -- off a bye week, no less -- in a 40-24 loss to the Indianapolis Lucks. About the only bright side was a career game for rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr. who caught eight passes for 156 yards. However, New York lost starting cornerback Prince Amukamara to a season-ending torn biceps injury. His three interceptions this season matched his career total from his first three years in the league. New York might get back starting running back Rashad Jennings in this one. Jennings was off to a strong start but has missed the past three games with a sprained MCL. Seattle seemed to lose interest in the second half of last week's game vs. Oakland after taking a 24-3 halftime lead. The Raiders got within 30-24 with 1:52 left but couldn't get the onside kick. Two Seattle starters, tight end Zach Miller (ankle surgery) and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (turf toe), will sit again this week. Seattle dominated the Giants in East Rutherford in Week 15 last year, 23-0. The Giants were held to 181 yards and Eli Manning was picked off five times.

NFL free pick: Seattle, but here's another one where I'd use a 9.5-point alternate line on NFL odds. New York has covered just once in its past eight after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Plus the G-Men on the short week. 

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