Biggest Spreads to Consider for Your Week 3 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, September 27, 2015 1:48 AM GMT

Crazy weekend of upsets in Week 2 -- many a killer in a Survivor Pool if that's your thing. I did take the points with the Bucs at Saints, who were the biggest favorites and lost outright. Here are the Week 3 JustBet top NFL odds.

Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks (-14 on NFL odds)
Reportedly, the is the largest that the Bears have been underdogs this century -- and I've seen this number as high as 15 at some other sportsbooks. Every NFL team has a chance to win, right? I mean, just look at what happened around the league in Week 2.  But I give the Bears literally zero chance  unless the Seattle team bus crashes on the way to the stadium. Chicago is quite simply the worst team in the NFL right now. Coach John Fox has not officially ruled out starting quarterback Jay Cutler yet but that's total hogwash. Fox is simply doing his best Bill Belichick impression. Cutler is not playing and could miss up to a month with that hamstring strain. So that means Jimmy Clausen gets the start and he's arguably one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this decade. And Clausen's No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery is likely out due to injury. The Chicago defense is terrible, having allowed 79 points and with zero sacks thus far. Oh, and the Seahawks are a motivated bunch at 0-2 in their home  opener. And they should get a major boost both on the field and from an emotional standpoint with the return of Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor, who ended his holdout this week. At least Windy City fans have the playoff-bound Cubs.

NFL Free Pick: It's usually a bad idea to give two touchdowns, but do so here. The Bears are 2-8  ATS in their past 10 following a double-digit loss at home. Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its past five Week 3 games.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (-13.5 at Pinnacle)
It's really an easy week to be a Survivor Pool contestant as you clearly either go with  Seattle or New England. Is Patriots quarterback Tom Brady playing with a "Deflategate" chip on his shoulder or what? Right now, he has to be the favorite to win a third NFL MVP Award. Brady has completed 63 of 91 passes for 754 yards and seven touchdowns with zero interceptions for a 119.9 passer rating this season. With three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Jacksonville, Brady would become only the second player in NFL history with 10+ touchdown passes without an interception through a team’s first three games of any season. Denver's Peyton Manning had 12 touchdown passes and zero INTs through the Broncos’ first three games in 2013. He won his fifth MVP Award that year in setting the passing yardage and touchdown records. The Patriots have looked phenomenal in their two wins, but might this be a trap game? New England is off wins over good teams Pittsburgh and Buffalo and has a bye in Week 4. The Jaguars aren't too bad and beat Miami pretty soundly last week.

NFL Free Pick: Take the points on NFL picks. Jags score a garbage-time TD to only lose by 10. Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in its past four against the AFC.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans (-6.5 on NFL picks)
This line rather surprises me. Tampa Bay looked like the NFL's worst team in Week 1, granted. But then the Bucs pretty much dominated the Saints in New Orleans last week. In the first road start of his career, Bucs quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston was very solid, completing 14-for-21 for 207 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions after throwing two in the season opener at home. The Bucs have generally been competitive on the road under second-year coach Lovie Smith but still haven't won at home under him. Meanwhile, Houston is 0-2 and has major quarterback issues. Brian Hoyer started the Week 1 loss to Kansas City and wasn't very good. Ryan Mallett got the nod in the Week 2 loss to Carolina and wasn't much better. Think Coach Bill O'Brien would like to have Winston? Houston again will be without No. 1 running back Arian Foster as he works his way back from a groin injury. He's close but it won't be here. The status of top receiver DeAndre Hopkins (concussion) is also in question.

NFL Free Pick: If this were 7.5, I'd take Tampa. But I'll take a desperate Houston team. J.J. Watt will fluster Winston. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their past six following an ATS win.

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