Biggest Point Spreads in Week 14 NFL Odds with Free ATS Picks

Matthew Jordan

Friday, December 5, 2014 4:48 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 5, 2014 4:48 PM UTC

A bounce-back 2-1 record on the three biggest spreads of Week 13 as I hit on the Colts vs. Redskins and on Texans vs. Titans. Missed on Dolphins -7 at the Jets as Miami nearly lost. Here are the top NFL spread odds for Week 14.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-10.5 on NFL odds)
What a difference a week makes for the Saints. Many wrote off New Orleans after losing three straight games at the Superdome from Weeks 10-12 -- they hadn't lost a regular-season there with Sean Payton as their coach (i.e. not suspended) since the 2010 season. So presumably New Orleans was going to fall to 4-8 last week as a 4-point underdog on NFL odds at Pittsburgh, yet New Orleans played one of its best games of the year in a 35-32 victory that really wasn't that close. Drew Brees had five touchdown passes and wasn't picked off. His 140.4 rating was a season high. The Saints can't let up now as they remain tied atop the NFC South with Atlanta despite that 5-7 mark. Carolina (3-8-1) scarily isn't out of the division race even though the Cats are winless in seven straight and have lost their past six. Four of those losses were blowouts, including last week's 31-13 setback in Minnesota in which a struggling Cam Newton was outplayed by rookie Teddy Bridgewater. On Oct. 30 in Charlotte, New Orleans beat the Panthers 28-10 to snap a seven-game road losing streak. Carolina had just 231 yards and Newton was a ghastly 10-for-28 passing.

NFL Free Pick: Prefer to buy this down to 9.5, but take New Orleans. Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its past five on the road. New Orleans has covered nine of its past 13 on NFL odds at home vs. teams with a losing road record.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (-10 at sportsbooks)
Detroit is just a different team at home, going 5-1 there and covering four of those on NFL odds. The Lions allowed the Bears a 14-3 lead on Thanksgiving before taking over in a 34-17 rout. It was a great sign for a struggling offense that Matthew Stafford threw for a season-high 390 yards, while Calvin Johnson was his unguardable self again with 11 catches for 146 yards and two scores. That Detroit offense is expecting back starting running back Reggie Bush this week. He hasn't played since Week 10 with an ankle injury. The Bucs find new and inventive ways to lose, getting penalized for a crucial 12 men on the field penalty last week when having a chance to win on a field goal against Cincinnati. Of course the Bucs lost 14-13 to remain winless at home. The team has been much more competitive on the road at 2-4 and with close losses in New Orleans, Cleveland and Chicago. One word of warning here: Detroit looked like a playoff team in Week 12 last year at home against a bad Bucs team. The Lions were 8-point favorites at sportsbooks but lost 24-21.

NFL Free Picks: Detroit -10 (buy down to 9.5). Tampa is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 vs. the NFC and 1-5 ATS in its past six following an ATS victory.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (-10 in NFL betting)
You think of Denver, you think of Peyton Manning and a pass-heavy offense. However, suddenly the Broncos have gone old school the past two weeks behind third-string tailback C.J. Anderson. He has had back-to-back 150-yard games and the Broncos have rushed for 201 and 214 yards, respectively, in those games -- wins over playoff-caliber teams Miami and Kansas City. Manning could get back one of his top targets this week in tight end Julius Thomas (12 TD catches) after he missed the past two games with an ankle injury. Buffalo's defense has been dominant in back-to-back wins over the Jets and Browns, allowing a total of 13 points. Those offenses aren't quite on par with Denver's. The Bills have held opponents to a league-low 15.2 points since the start of Week 7, but, again, some bad offenses are in there. When making your NFL picks for this week keep in mind that the Broncos are unbeaten at home and have scored at least 31 in all but one game there.

NFL Free Pick: Denver. The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their past seven on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. The Broncos have covered eight of their past nine December games.

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