Betting Week 2: Outright Upsets & Best Value Money Line NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 14, 2015 7:13 PM GMT

The Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans and New York Jets all won their 2015 NFL Regular Season openers on Sunday, but can all three continue to impress in their Week 2 Road openers? With games at the Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts respectively, it won’t be easy, but the Trends and recent relevant history points to giving all three of the Underdogs a look and possibly backing them with some picks both as Straight-Up Underdogs and with the points. Let’s see what these three NFL games—one played Thursday, one Sunday and one next Monday—look like heading into the new week.

Thursday, September 17, 2015 
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs -3 (CBS/NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT): The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Line on this was Pick ‘Em, so to see the host Chiefs now installed as 3-point Favorites against a team like the Denver Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) in this AFC West rivalry at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City in this CBS Thursday Night Football debut seems a little rich. Granted, the Chiefs (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS) did look good for a half in their Week 1 opener at Houston where they held off the Texans, 27-20 as QB Alex Smith (22/33, 243 yards, 3 TDs) helped the hosts to the win. But Kansas City jumped out to a 27-6 lead in the 2nd Quarter and benefited from 3 Houston TOs, and the fact Texans QB Brian Hoyer (Free Agent, Browns) was making his first start has to be taken into consideration. Denver and QB Peyton Manning looked pretty subpar in the Broncos 19-13 win in Denver over the Ravens, throwing for just 175 yards, 0 TDs and 1 Interception. Last season in this game at Arrowhead, Kansas City lost, 29-16, as 1-point Underdogs in Week 12 and Trend-wise, the Broncos are 5-1 ATS the L6 here at Arrowhead Stadium as well as 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings overall. Also, Denver has also W6 straight SU vs. the Chiefs. Getting 3 points in a game it can, and will expect to win, so taking the Broncos (6-0 vs. AFC West in 2014, 5-1 ATS) and crafty veteran Manning and this Defense here both with the key number of 3 and as an Underdog on the Moneyline is the Rx. 

NFL Pick: Broncos +3, Broncos Moneyline at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

 

Sunday, September 20, 2015
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns -2 (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Cleveland Browns (7-9 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) welcome the Tennessee Titans (2-14 SU, 3-12-1 ATS) to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon for this AFC inter-divisional game which opened up as (Browns) -4 on the Advanced Line and opens -2 here in the Opener at the SuperBook on Sunday night (-2½ at Pinnacle), showing how oddsmakers lost some confidence in the Browns because of their loss to the Jets while thinking a little more highly of the Titans. Tennessee defeated the Buccaneers in Tampa and saw Rookie QB Marcus Mariota (Oregon) absolutely shine in his Regular Season debut (13/16, 209 yards, 4 TDs, 0 Interceptions) as did teammates RB Bishop Sankey (12 rushes, 74 yards, TD vs. Bucs) and WR Kendall Wright (4 receptions, 101 yards TD). Even though this is the Browns Home opener and in the Buckeye State, Cleveland has that familiar NFL issue of suddenly having a QB “problem,” with second-stringer Johnny Manziel (13/24, 182 yards, TD) now quickly suddenly thrust into action against the Jets on Sunday after starter Josh McCown (5/8, 49 yards) suffered a Concussion early on in the game.
The last time these two teams met was Week 5 last season where the Browns and Head Coach Mike Pettine (9-7-1 ATS) won 29-28 as 1-point Underdogs to Push the number in Nashville. Trend-wise, the Titans are 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Browns in Cleveland, and with Rookie Mariota gaining confidence every day and Manziel still being Manziel-ish (2 Fumbles, 1 Interception on Sunday), the visitors can definitely win this game here. And the Browns—who saw LB Scott Solomon (Ankle) leave Sunday’s loss to the Jets with an injury—could really be in some trouble if they don’t win here with the Raiders (Home), Chargers (Away), Ravens (Away) and Broncos (Home) all coming up immediately on the schedule in Weeks 3-6, meaning an 0-6 start and talks of a new HC may bubble (Mike Pettine to be First NFL Head Coach Fired +585, 5Dimes). 

NFL Pick: Titans +2½, Titans Moneyline at Pinnacle.

 

Monday, September 21, 2015 
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts -7 (ESPN/WatchESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): Andrew Luck (17-6-2 ATS Home, 73.9% win percentage ATS) and the Indianapolis Colts (13-6 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) host the upstart New York Jets (4-12 SU, 6-9-1) in this AFC inter-divisional tilt from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis next Monday night and the hosts will really be in need of a win after getting dominated in Buffalo and losing to the Bills in Week 1 on Sunday, 27-14 as Luck was 26/49 (2 TDs, 2 Interceptions, 38.7 QBR). But the Jets and new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Free Agent, Texans) looked pretty good after a slow start and New York toppled the Browns at home at MetLife Stadium, 31-10 as Fitzpatrick was 15/24 for 179 yards (2 TDs, Interception), RB Chris Ivory rushed for 91 yards and a 2 TDs on 20 carries and new WR Brandon Marshall (Free Agent, Bears) caught 6 passes for 62 yards and a TD. Not a bad start to the new season.
The last time these two teams met was in 2012 at MetLife Stadium where the Colts were promptly saddled, 35-9, as 3-point Underdogs, while the last time these two met here in Naptown was in the Playoffs in 2010 where the host Indianapolis lost to New York, 17-16 as 2-point Favorites. As a matter of fact, the Jets have beaten Indianapolis SU the L3 meetings and two straight here at Lucas Oil Stadium. With the Jets confident and Indianapolis shaky, weak on the OL and on Defense and maybe a little desperate, taking a shot on the visiting Jets—New York is 6-2 ATS in their L8 overall against the Colts—here both with the 7 points and on the Moneyline seems worth a shot. Why not. Note: The Jets were +9½ on the Advanced Line (SuperBook) released last Wednesday.

NFL Pick: Jets +7, Moneyline at Pinnacle.