Betting Value on Home Dog for Monday Night Football Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, November 13, 2014 4:27 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014 4:27 PM GMT

Pittsburgh has been mediocre at best when playing on the road this season, which makes Tennessee a dangerous home underdog pick on Monday Night Football.

Disappointing Result
After picking up three consecutive wins at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh put forth a disappointing effort in dropping a 20-13 decision to the New York Jets as 4.5-point road favorites last week, while going UNDER the betting total for the fourth time in five games away from home in 2014.

The Steelers are certainly capable of bouncing back, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 25-12 SU in November, while they’ve captured eight of 10 games when featured in this primetime event under head coach Mike Tomlin.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 7-8 SUATS when playing against a team with a losing record, with the UNDER going 9-6 in that situation.

Check out this capper's take on the Steelers vs. Titans

Shuffling Around
Tennessee first year head coach Ken Whisenhunt has had three different quarterbacks start for him in 2014, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting odds, as former LSU star Zach Mettenberger will open things up for a third consecutive game.

The Titans rank 31st in the league in averaging 16.0 points and 308.7 yards per game, while they’ve been out-gained by 181 combined yards in dropping both of Mettenberger’s first two starts against the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens.

It’s important to point out that the squad is a miserable 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at LP Field in Nashville.

 

Not Exactly the Steel Curtain
The Steelers have allowed a league-high 36 points on their opponents’ first offensive possession through 10 games, which is important to consider when making your Week 11 NFL picks, but the Titans haven’t started fast due to their situation under center.

Pittsburgh is 23rd in the league in allowing opponents to average 5.8 yards per play, but they’ve done a great job of getting off the field in critical situations—sitting behind just four teams in allowing foes to convert just 35.5 percent of their third downs.

 

Under the Bright Lights
The Titans have won their last four games on Monday night, with their last loss in front of this nationally-televised audience coming in 2007. Tennessee has won and covered the number in its last two meetings against Pittsburgh, including a 16-9 season-opening victory as six-point road underdogs last year.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Titans as one of their top football picks, as the Steelers are a disappointing 1-3 SUATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points the last two-plus seasons.

Free NFL picks:  Tennessee Titans +6 at Bovada

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