Betting Value for Super Bowl LII Is With ... the Patriots?!

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Jason Lake

Sunday, February 4, 2018 3:13 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018 3:13 PM UTC

The New England Patriots fell from -6 to -4.5 in early betting for Super Bowl LII versus the Philadelphia Eagles. They might not be there by the time you read this.

Super Bowl LII: Last-Minute Betting ValueFree NFL Pick: Under 49 (–115)
Best Line Offered: Bovada

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Check out SBR's Super Bowl LII Props Betting Page

Where’s the ka-boom? There was supposed to be an Earth-shattering ka-boom of money on the New England Patriots this weekend. Maybe all those Patriots fans are just waiting until the last minute, because as of Saturday night, according to the expanded consensus reports, New England is still pulling just 25.6 percent of the amount wagered for Super Bowl LII. The big money remains on the underdog Philadelphia Eagles at +4.5, down from +6 when the lines for tonight's Big Game (6:30 p.m. ET, NBC) first hit the NFL odds board.

The word from the Strip backs up those consensus figures – for the most part. If anything, more people in Vegas have lined up to bet on the Eagles; our reports show a very slight lean toward the Patriots at 50.7 percent of wagers placed, compared to around 40 percent at the casinos. We’ve even got 19 $1000-plus bets on the defending champions, compared to 17 on Philadelphia. But the really big bets in Vegas have been on the Eagles. We’re talking seven figures here, in cold, hard American cash.

Mass. Transit

The needle is definitely moving in New England’s direction, though. When we looked at the early Super Bowl odds nearly two weeks ago, Philly was the obvious sharp choice, hauling in 93 percent of the monies wagered. Last week, the Eagles were down to 89 percent. Even now as I write this, the consensus numbers are moving in very tiny increments toward the Patriots, from 25.62 to 25.64 percent. Gripping, isn’t it? Not too many people pay attention to these things, but you should.

You should also take a very close look at the odds board before making your NFL picks – if you haven’t already unloaded on Philadelphia. A small handful of sportsbooks (5Dimes, Island Casino and Sportbet) have apparently decided not to take that Patriots money for granted, moving the spread down even further to New England -4 (-109). The moneyline has also dipped from Patriots -224 to as low as -175. A lot of those million-dollar bets were on the moneyline, so if the betting patterns don’t change significantly and Philadelphia wins Super Bowl LII outright, it’s going to be carnage out there.

Well, maybe not carnage. People mostly stopped betting the Eagles on the Super Bowl LII futures market after QB Carson Wentz tore up his knee in Week 14 – and well before that at some books. That’ll help balance things out. Meanwhile, most of the action on the total has been on the OVER, no surprise, moving that number from 48 points to 48.5. There is one 49 on the board at Bovada, and that’s probably your best Super Bowl value if you can get it; we’re adding UNDER 49 to our previous bet on the Eagles at +5, paying a small premium on vigorish at –115 in exchange for some variance-smoothing. Plus, we’re more than happy to combine those two bets for the classic underdog-UNDER Super Bowl parlay.

Enjoy the Big Game, and may the prolate spheroid be with you. Oooh, look, 25.69 percent ...

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