Betting Value on Cowboys Over Rams for Week 3 NFL Picks

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 2:11 PM GMT

Both the Rams and Cowboys are feeling good about themselves after grabbing impressive Week 2 wins on the road. Dallas will enter as the NFL betting favorite for Week 3's game in St. Louis, but are the Cowboys going to get our backing?

***U P D A T E***

There's a lot of variation out there right now in terms of the NFL odds

Some books have the line at a PK, but the Cowboys are favored by one to two points at other sites. There's value out there to be had, so using multiple sportsbooks is crucial in these types of situations. As of now, the total is at 44 points, which is right around what we expected.

It's still uncertain if Shaun Hill will be able to start. He's likely to be a game-time decision, with Austin Davis ready to fill in if needed, which may not actually be a bad thing considering he was able to lead the Rams to a win last week.

The only other major injurry affecting the NFL odds for the Rams is Tavon Austin, who is already listed as out for this Week 3 matchup.

Dallas will likely be without Rolando McClain, but it looks like Dez Bryant will be able to suit up after getting in some practice reps this week.

Though the Rams were able to notch a great road win last Sunday, we think their luck will run out this weekend. The Cowboys looked great in Nashville, and they simply have way more offensive talent to lean on in this matchup. Assuming they don't shoot themselves in the foot, we look for Dallas to cover in this one.

Free NFL Pick: Cowboys PK

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***O R I G I N A L***

Dallas looked impressive last weekend, so we can't fault oddsmakers for making them favorites despite being on the road. Current NFL odds show the Cowboys giving away a point and a half.

At time of writing, the total had not been released, but we can expect something in the mid 40s for this Week 3 encounter in St. Louis.

St. Louis Rams in 2014-15 Regular Season: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, -13.0 margin of victory

Dallas Cowboys in 2014-15 Regular Season: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, +2.5 margin of victory

The Rams weren't given much of a chance in Tampa Bay this past Sunday, but they showed up to play and escaped with the 19-17 victory as underdogs.

With Sam Bradford out for the year and Shaun Hill unable to go, third-string QB Austin Davis had to fill in, and he did a great job. He didn't account for a touchdown, but completed 22-of-29 passes for 235 yards without a turnover. Zac Stacy ran for 71 yards, while Brian Quick led all receivers with seven catches for 74 yards.

Defensively is where the Rams stood out most, as they made life difficult on Josh McCown and the Buccaneers. St. Louis had a little trouble stopping Bo Rainey, but ultimately they did enough to get the win.

Another top defensive effort will be needed against Dallas in Week 3, as the Cowboys just got done tearing the Titans to shreds in Nashville.

Dallas had a ton of success with the ground game and continued to pound the ball with DeMarco Murray, who had 29 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Dez Bryant had 10 receptions for 103 yards, with the Cowboys defense stuffing Jake Locker and company throughout.

Looking ahead, though the Rams showed up in a big way Week 2, we're finding it difficult to trust them in this spot. The Cowboys appear to be the more talented team, and they should find a win to win as long they avoid making stupid mistakes.

Another heavy dosage of Murray behind that stout offensive line seems likely, but don't forget about the likes of Bryant, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten either. When these teams met last season, the Cowboys cruised to a 31-7 victory at home as 3.5-point chalk.

We'll continue to see how the NFL betting lines move throughout the week, but for now we have a strong lean on Dallas for our NFL picks as a short favorite.

**As of right now only The Greek and BetOnline are offering odds on this game.

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