Our handicapping expert got off the mark hot as he cruised to a 3-1 ATS record in the opening week of football in his NFL picks. But let’s see what he has in store as he peruses the NFL odds for Week 2.
2015 NFL Record (3-1 ATS)
As reluctant as we are to say that sometimes the squares get it right, I must say that the chalky road favorite known as the Green Bay Packers proved that Joe Q. Public does indeed cash in his NFL picks every once in a while. The Pack defeated the Bears 31-23 and covered the 6 ½ point impost much to our delight.
We also saw that researching betting trends can pay off big time when the Super Bowl hangover continued as the runner-up in the previous season’s Super Bowl, in this case the Seattle Seahawks, went into Week 1 the following season with an ATS mark of 2-13. Make that 2-14 after the opening week of 2015 as the St. Louis Rams not only covered the number as a 4-point underdog in NFL odds but won the game outright 34-31.
We also clicked with the San Diego Chargers as they took care of business and defeated the Lions 33-28 as 2 ½ -point betting favorites. Unfortunately we decided to stray from betting sides and found that our only total was vaporized as the Titans and Bucs combined for well over 41 points which made our ‘under’ play underwhelming to say the least.
St. Louis Rams (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
This looks like the prototypical trap game for the Rams. We cashed with them in our NFL picks last week but that was more of a fade against Seattle who had the aforementioned Super Bowl hangover curse working against them. St. Louis finally prevailed in overtime and you have to believe that they left it all on the field when Greg Zuerlein knocked home a 37-yard field goal that sent the home crowd into a frenzy.
The Redskins actually hung tough with the Miami Dolphins last week before wilting away as they are prone to do and suffering a 17-10 opening day defeat. Kirk Cousins was intercepted twice but let’s not forget the dominating statistical edge Washington held over Miami. When the dust settled the only stat that mattered was on the scoreboard but the ‘Skins outgained the Dolphins 349-256 and the possession time was a whopping 37:54 to 22:06 in favor of Washington. The Rams won’t be sporting Ndamukong Suh in the middle as the Dolphins did last week even though running back Alfred Morris still gained 125 yards on the ground despite his immense presence.
The Rams just beat one of the best teams in the league and a divisional rival to boot and will be looking ahead to hosting the Steelers in Week 3. Cousins will improve because we have seen him play well many times and he has gotten a bad rap in DC. I realize the Redskins have their limitations but they are already better than many gave them credit for in the preseason.
NFL Picks: Washington +4 (-120) buying the ½ at YouWager
New York Jets (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
I’m not trying to be all contrarian here because I know the public will be all over the Colts like ham on Swiss. I am simply evaluating the NFL odds this week vis a vis the results in Week 1 and I am here to tell you that giving the Jets a touchdown head start against a porous, to say the least, Colts defense seems like too much.
Please put the fact that we are talking about the New York Jets out of your mind and just think of them as “that green team” who punished Cleveland 31-10 last week at home. The Jets have a very good defense and while it may not be as good as the Colts offense the disparity between the Jets offense and the Indianapolis defense is far greater. While I am not calling for an outright win, as I am not ignoring New York’s proclivity to melt down as time wanes, I do believe this team can take the lead at some point and hang tough the rest of the way.
NFL Picks: Jets +7 ½ (-130) at 5Dimes