We look at some key NFL betting trends for week 9 gridiron matchups in an attempt to spot the best NFL betting strategy and streamline our NFL picks.
Thursday Night Football
So far, seven of the eight weeks of football betting have served up the ‘over’ on Thursday. That trend could hold true again when the Saints and Panthers collide to open week 9 NFL betting. Granted, NFL betting trends reveal the a conspicuous ‘under’ trend in 13 of the last 19 games between this pair, but the ‘over’ has been trending in both camps of late – the total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last seven New Orleans games while it has gone ‘over’ in five of the last eight Carolina games.
There are several heavyweight clashes on the NFL betting menu this week that could essentially go either way due to their pivotal nature. The Broncos and Patriots collide in a must-see game between two of the best quarterbacks in the game, if not the history of the NFL. Brady has the 10-5 edge over Peyton through 15 meetings, but the 16th meeting is tipped wholeheartedly towards Peyton and the Broncos across the NFL odds board. This could mean something or nothing at all as NFL bettors weigh in on this clash. What we do know is that this is a matchup that rarely disappoints and offers various angles for profit. Broncos are 13-3 SU on the road in their last 16 games while the Patriots are 13-0 SU at home, which includes a perfect 4-0 SU record this season. It’s worth noting, Denver are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Patriots, including a 34-31 loss in overtime last season. Denver did however bounce back with a 26-16 win in the postseason over the Patriots. Overall, Denver are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games with the Patriots and the ‘over’ has cashed in four of their last five meetings.
Ravens and Steelers collide in a pivotal divisional clash all while nestled on a tight 1.5-point spread on the NFL betting board. Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games but 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Steelers. Steelers, however, have the upper hand when playing at home, going 11-4 SU against the Ravens at Heinz Stadium.
The Giants and Colts collide in a must-see Monday Night affair with the Giants coming off a bye and the Colts still reeling from a beat down in Pittsburgh. Giants are matched as the home dogs as they look to snap a two-game losing streak. Giants are 6-3 SU in their last nine home games, which is an auspicious record Giants backers hope will be deciding, along with a modest 7-6 road record by the Colts.
Home Sweet Home
Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals are at home in week 9, faced with rather straightforward affairs against Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars. Both the Hawks and Bengals boast formidable home records – the former is 11-2 SU while the latter is 11-1-1 SU at home, fact that lends itself appropriately to their prohibitive NFL odds to win SU. Where the value could present itself for NFL bettors is in spread and total betting. Hawks are 4-2 ATS against the Raiders but 3-4 ATS this season overall and just 8-5 ATS at home with a 12-point margin of victory at home since 2013. Bengals, by contrast, are 11-2 ATS at home since 2013 with a 12.8-point margin of victory and 3-1 ATS at home this season.
Kansas City Chiefs are 4-7 ATS since 2013 at home with a margin of victory at 5.5-points. They take on the hapless New York Jets, who are riding an abysmal seven-game losing streak this season, on par with the winless Oakland Raiders as far as poor form goes. NFL betting trends reveal the Jets are 5-2 SU against Kansas City in their last seven encounters, but given their waning confidence and inexplicably daft play at centre, it’s hard to imagine those NFL betting trends having weight. Chiefs have won two in a row and they look to be in good position to continue that solid form in week 9 NFL betting. Consider the Bills just hung 43 points on the Jets in week 8 NFL betting, taking the ‘over’ in this game could prove the savvy NFL pick – the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last seven Jets games.
Home advantage has been a charm for Miami against the San Diego Chargers having won their last five meetings and eight of their last ten altogether. Fittingly, the Dolphins are matched as the favourites across the board. Will this betting trend hold true given the Chargers are enjoying solid form this season behind a 5-3 SU and ATS mark. Chargers are 8-5-1 ATS on the road since 2013 with a 1.3-point average margin of victory. The value NFL pick for Chargers backers could be on the spread where they are matched currently as the 2.5-point underdogs.
Finally, the Browns and Niners would appear to be safe bets when they host the Buccaneers and Rams, respectively. NFL trends point to such a notion as well – the Bucs are 1-5 SU in their last six against the Browns while the Rams are 1-5-1 SU in their last seven games with the Niners. But it remains to be seen whether they are worth their respective hefty 6.5-point and 9.5-point spreads.
You’re Own Your Own
Several games on the week’s plate would appear to be complete coin tosses, with angles for profit on both sides of the coin. Texans and Eagles are both above .500 this season but when they collide something is going to have to give. Texans look to build a winning streak while the Eagles are desperate to return to winning form after falling to the Cardinals in week 8. Houston are 2-1 SU and ATS at home while the Eagles are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road; you couldn’t cut it finer.
Vikings and Redskins collide in a matchup that could go either way theoretically given the up-and-down nature of their seasons. Redskins are 2-4 SU when playing the Vikings and 2-4 ATS as well, but both sides are under .500 this season. It really is a tossup.
So there you have it, some NFL betting trends to keep in mind when looking at the coming week’s NFL odds board in search of value NFL picks.Good luck!