Betting Trends Point 'Over' for Broncos vs. Cowboys

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, August 26, 2014 2:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2014 2:56 PM UTC

In what is set to be a huge day of preseason action this Thursday, one of the toughest games to peg is the Broncos and Cowboys, with NFL betting odds opening at a Pick'em.

Week 4 of the preseason brings a lot of uncertainty, and the NFL odds have this one very even, with a total of 44 points.


Weeden vs. Osweiler
I would be utterly shocked if Peyton Manning stepped foot on the field this week in Dallas other than during warm-ups. It looks as if this will be the Brock Osweiler show on Thursday night. The question remains however, which Osweiler will we see?

He played well in Week 2 of the preseason, however last week against the Texans he was pretty bad in relief of Manning. Against the second and third strings of the Cowboys, he should find plenty of room to move the ball, however if he isn’t sharp like this past weekend, the Cowboys may be able to take advantage.

On the other side, the home team is facing similar challenges with their backup QB. Brandon Weeden played well in Week 2 of the preseason against the Ravens, however just like Osweiler, he struggled this past week in relief of Tony Romo.

Against the backups for the Broncos, Weeden might be able to regain some form, but unlike Osweiler, who has shown promise his entire career, Weeden doesn’t really have the same pedigree from his time in Cleveland. Granted the coaching situation did not play to his advantage, but he has an important job, backing up Romo, who is coming off of back surgery this summer.


Roster Cuts
There were already one set of roster cuts this week, and after this Thursday, teams will have to finalize their 53-man roster. There are now ten players on the practice squad this season as well, so even more so, Week 4 of the preseason is crucial for the fringe roster guys.

For a handicapper, this week is incredibly difficult. Most teams don’t play their starters at all, and predicting based on guys who might not even make the team is very hard. However for a game like this, there are some nice trends.

Last preseason in Week 4, the sportsbooks played down the totals a lot, thinking there wasn’t going to be much offense from the backups. However the 'over' went 10-6 during the final week of preseason 2013.


The Sharp Pick
We could see similar scoring numbers this week in the preseason finale, especially in a game like this. The total is already set at 44, one of the highest of the week, however that is for a reason. Both backup units can still score within their systems, and neither team’s defense is particularly good, especially with the second string in.

I think we will see the Weeden and Osweiler from Week 2 of the preseason, and if that’s the case, this total is going over. At least in Osweiler’s case, he will likely play most of, if not all of the game. This will give him a better chance of getting into a rhythm during the game, which could lead to more scoring against the horrific Dallas defense. Take the over, and add it to your Week 4 preseason NFL picks.

My Free NFL Pick: Bet Over the Total of 44 at Bet365

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