Betting Trends in Cowboys vs. Giants Scream 'Over'

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 3:08 PM GMT

The 'Over' in NFL odds is an amazing 26-8 ATS in primetime TV games this year and an incredible 9-1 on Sundays after last week’s Colts-Patriots showdown. So is this an automatic bet here? You betcha.

Odds Overview
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (Cowboys -3, 47, Pinnacle)
This NFC East matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (7-3 SU, 6-4 SU) and the New York Giants (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey is a game NBC undoubtedly was hoping would be a much better matchup than it has turned out to be with the G-Men scuffling so much. New York enters this meeting on a  5-game losing streak and heading into the final quarter of yet another lost season.

To show how much oddsmakers justify NBC’s decision to schedule this meeting in primetime, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year line—released each summer—had the Giants as 2-point Favorites in this game. And this still may end up being a entertaining fare, but the luster of it actually meaning something for both teams washed away weeks ago when the Giants started this losing streak.

Anyway, the Total Points in this game is set at 47 while the Money Line in this NFL odds have visiting Dallas as -170 Favorites with the Underdog Giants priced at +150. The Cowboys Total Team Points is 25½ (Paddy Power) while the Giants Total Team Points has been set at 22. A random prop: Overtime in this game is lined at Yes +1000 (10/1) and No -1600.

 

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas (7-2 L9 SU) won the first meeting between these two teams this season, 31-21 as 4-point Favorites in Big D in Week 7 and the Cowboys will be rested, coming off their Bye Week while the Giants will be coming off a humiliating loss to the 49ers here at Home. Cowboys QB Tony Romo (125 completions, 2,244 yards, 18 TDs) is having a good year leading the offense which has been spurred by the incredible play of RB DeMarco Murray (244 rushes, 1,233 yards, 7 TDs). Romo (16-27 ATS vs. Division) has used WR Dez Bryant (56 receptions, 793 yards, 8 TDs, 14.2 ypc) and his good buddy and TE Jason Witten (39 receptions, 431 yards, 3 TDs) as needed this season and the defense has been good enough that this Cowboys (4-1 SU L5) team could make a run at a Super Bowl appearance if everything goes right.

Cowboys DT Davon Coleman (calf), DT Tyrone Crawford (knee) and LB Rolando McClain (knee) are all listed as Questionable while NT Josh Brent becomes eligible on Sunday after serving his suspension. 

 

New York Giants
As mentioned, Eli Manning (224 completions, 2,495 yards, 18 TDs) and the Giants have lost 5 straight games heading into this Sunday Night Football date, and New York is also 0-5 ATS in those last five contests and scored 0, 21, 24, 17 and 0 points in those games. RB Rashad Jennings (109 rushes, 455 yards, 2 TDs) and TE Larry Donnell (44 receptions, 437 yards, 6 TDs) have had above average seasons for them, but this Giants (1-5 SU L5 vs. Cowboys) offense and Manning (40-44 ATS Home) really leaves a lot to be desired and ranks 15th Passing and 22nd Rushing and sort of miss the injured Cruz. And the defense has even been worse, ranking 22nd against the Pass and dead-last 32nd in the league against the Run (145.0 ypg), so expect Dallas to try to exploit that with its big and talented OL.

New York T James Brewer (back), LB Jacquian Williams (concussion) and DT Cullen Jenkins (calf) are all listed as Questionable for this game while the Giants also have a number of players out for the season or on the Injured Reserve list including LB Jon Beason (out for season, toe), CB Prince Amukamara (I-R, bicep), RB Peyton Hillis (I-R, concussion) and WRs Victor Cruz (I-R, knee) and Jerrel Jernigan (I-R, foot).

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
The trends for this NFL pick just scream Over and Dallas here and it seems wise to ride them in this game in two recommendations stronger than most of the rest of the NFL board this week. The Over is 9-2 in the L11 meetings in this series and 5-2 the L7 here in East Rutherford, and, toss in the fact that the Over is 7-2 in the L9 Cowboys games on the Road and that fresh and funky specific trend where the Over is 9-1 on SNF so far this season, and it’s written in the stars that the Over is the way to go here.

As far as making a claim for backing Dallas here, it isn’t very hard either. The Cowboys are only laying 3 points here, they have the better quarterback, the better offense, the better defense and actually have something to play for. Dallas is also rested, coming in off its Open Date and the Cowboys are a surprising 5-0 SU in its L5 games on the Road. Dallas is also 4-1 ATS L5 against the Giants and 3-1 ATS L4 here at East Rutherford and every once in awhile the trends and what seems about to happen jive and this appears to be one of those rare handicaps.

Free NFL Pick: Cowboys -3, Over 47 at Pinnacle

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