Betting Trend Suggest Packers are the Week 6 NFL Pick Despite Chalky Odds

Jason Lake

Monday, October 12, 2015 8:11 PM GMT

The Green Bay Packers get the bye in Week 7 – which makes them a good NFL pick for Week 6 against the San Diego Chargers, if you believe in the power of betting trends.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 11: 17-11 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-17 Total

There's something to be said for standing on the shoulders of giants. Here at the home office, we rely heavily on the work that other people have already done for us, be it advanced statistical analysis, injury updates on the Tweeper, or the consensus reports right here at good ol' SBR. Our favorite go-to source for NFL odds & trends is Walter Cherepinsky, and he's got a good one for Week 6 – although it needs some updating.

Let's see if we can help. The trend in question is called “Hello, Good Bye,” and it's pretty simple: Bet on favorites at –6.5 or higher in the week before they go on their bye. Cherepinsky broke down the results by head coach, as one should, and came up with a record of 43-13 ATS dating back to 2002. Looks like this would be a good time to put the Green Bay Packers in our NFL picks; they're 9.5-point road faves this Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) against the San Diego Chargers before taking the bye in Week 7.

 

Exhuming McCarthy
One problem: That ATS record hasn't been updated since Norv Turner was San Diego's head coach. We need to go back and comb through the results between 2008 and now, if I'm reading this correctly. Yikes. Or we could focus specifically on the man in question: Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. He was 2-0 ATS in this situation going into 2008. What has McCarthy done for us lately?

2008: N/A

2009: N/A

2010: Cowboys 7, Packers 45 (GB –7)

2011: Packers 27, Vikings 33 (MIN +10)

2012: Cardinals 17, Packers 31 (GB –10.5)

2013: N/A

2014: N/A

 

All right all right all right. Make it 4-1 ATS for McCarthy and the Packers when laying 6.5 points or more the week before the bye. That's a small sample size, but when you look at the larger trend (at least from 2002-07), it's a compelling argument to bet on Green Bay, even with the biggest spread on the NFL odds board for Week 6.

It's still important to give this matchup a thorough examination. At press time, there isn't enough data yet to produce a consensus report, so we'd recommend holding off until that information comes in. However, the Packers are 5-0 SU and ATS, and the Chargers were 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS going into Monday night's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers – yet another good reason to exercise a little patience before opening up those wallets and/or purses. Let's see if San Diego's offensive line loses any more players in this game, and as always, may the prolate spheroid be with you.