Betting the Total: Colts vs. Titans in Week 11

Darin Zank

Thursday, November 14, 2013 6:45 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013 6:45 PM GMT

Earlier this week we previewed the Colts-Titans Thursday night game, and made a pick on the side.

Now, after doing a little more homework, we offer up a pick on the OVER/UNDER on tonight's game in Nashville.

We do so, because we care.

Colts-Titans: Total Line Movement

Most sportsbooks we surfed earlier this week opened the NFL odds on this game at a total right around 43; there were a couple of 42s, and a couple of 44s. As of Thursday morning most books were listing the total at 42.5.

Colts-Titans Betting Trends

Indy is 5-4 on the OVER/UNDERS this year, as Colts games have averaged 46 total points.

Tennessee is 6-3 on the totals, as Titans games have averaged 44 points.

Colts-Titans Injury Update

On one side of this match-up Indy is playing without WR Reggie Wayne, who's out for the year after tearing an ACL. Also, the Colts are a bit banged-up on defense, especially in the secondary. They were last week, too, and look what happened; the Rams, a team that ranks 26th in the league in offense, scored 24 offensive points through the first three quarters.

On the other side of this match-up Tennessee is without QB Jake Locker, who suffered a foot injury  and also may be gone for the year. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start.

Colts-Titans Total Preview

Fitzpatrick has started two games already this season for Tennessee, last month, losses to Kansas City  and Seattle. The Titans scored 17 points and accumulated 340 yards of offense against the Chiefs, but just six offensive points and 220 yards against the Seahawks.

Those two defenses are ranked 10th and third, respectively, at the moment.

Indy's defense, though, is ranked 22nd overall, giving up 368 YPG, and 26th vs. the run, allowing 127 YPG on the ground.

When the Colts have the ball they'll send out a 13th-ranked offense against a Tennessee defense that ranks ninth overall but 21st vs. the run.

Colts-Titans Recent History

Indy swept two games from Tennessee last year, winning 19-13 in overtime in Nashville, and 27-23 in Indianapolis. The first game stayed UNDER its total of 46, while the second game played OVER 47.

The first game included several time-consuming drives, some of which resulted in points, some of which didn't. There was also a blocked field goal, a missed field goal and a Colts turnover in Tennessee territory. The teams combined for almost 800 yards of offense, but just three touchdowns.

In last year's second meeting the teams combined for only 630 yards of offense, but each team scored a defensive touchdown, and the kickers combined to make five field goals inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

Colts-Titans: The Kickers

Kickers can play a big part in deciding whether a game plays OVER or stays UNDER a total. Look no further than Monday night's Dolphins-Bucs game; Rian Lindell and Caleb Sturgis combined to make four field goals on a calm night in Tampa, and a game in which each team scored two touchdowns played OVER a total of 40.

Indy K Adam Vinatieri (you may have heard of him) is 17-for-20 on FGs this season, with a long of 52 yards. He's also a perfect 19-for-19 on extra points.

Tennessee K Rob Bironas, who once made an NFL-record eight field goals in one game, is 13-for-16 on 3-pointers this year, with a long of 47 yards, and is a perfect 23-for-23 on XP attempts this season.

All in all, two pretty good kickers, who could help this game go OVER on the total.

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Colts-Titans Weather Update

From what we can gather the weather in Nashville should not be much of a factor on tonight's game. The forecast calls for light winds and temps in the 40s; “football weather,” as it's known – a chill in the air.

Colts-Titans Free Total Pick  

Indy is thin in the secondary, which should help Fitzpatrick and Tennessee to move the ball. The Colts just got held to eight points last week; we expect a little better performance tonight. And the weather doesn't look like it will inhibit anything offensively. So we'll go with the OVER 42 (at Pinnacle) on tonight's game for our free NFL totals pick.

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