Betting the Total for Broncos vs. Raiders Week 10 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 3:19 PM GMT

Total betting markets are furiously hopping with action coming down the wire on the clash between the Broncos and Raiders, the public hotfooting to the OVER almost unanimously. Does the public have it right? Find out as we analyse this matchup and deliver our NFL betting verdict on the total NFL odds trading.  

Broncos vs. Raiders O/U 49.0
As the Broncos get set to take on lowly divisional rivals Oakland Raiders, early Betting reports reveal unequivocal consensus on the trading floor, the public unanimously backing the OVER 49.0-point total set across sports betting exchanges. A staggering 97% of public money has been recorded on the OVER, leaving just 3% backing the UNDER. Which side of the coin is going to be cashing bets in at the exchange windows when all is said and done?

NFL betting trends between this pair suggest the former is barking up the right tree. The total has gone OVER in six of Denver’s last nine games with Oakland, which is a 66.7% winning ratio.

From an individual standpoint, the Broncos are 6-2-0 in over-under betting this season and the total has gone OVER in five of Denver’s last five games across the board this season. Another statistic that tips the balance towards the OVER: the total has gone above predicated market lines in 15 of Denver’s last 22 games (68.2% winning ratio), including two of their last three road games.

The Raiders, by contrast, are 4-4-0 in over-under betting this season, including their last account that went 30-24 in favour of Seattle. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six domestic games but it has only gone OVER in seven of their last 18 home games (7-11-1 since 2012), which includes their last two meetings with Denver at home.

 

Looking Back: Broncos vs. Raiders Total Results in Oakland
Last season, Denver Broncos descended on the Raiders on December 29, installed as the 10-point favourites with the total set to 53.5-points. Avid football bettors will recall Peyton Manning’s MVP season, so those NFL lines were appropriate. Tale told, the Broncos won 34-14 to cover as the 10-point road chalk but the 48-point score combined came well under the lofty 53.5-point mark.

In 2012, the pair collided on December 6 in Oakland with NFL game lines set on a 10-point spread and 47-point total. Denver Broncos covered as the road chalk in a 26-13 victory but the total came significantly UNDER market expectations.

Indeed, the last time this matchup cashed on the OVER was on November 6, 2011. Then, the Broncos beat the Raiders 38-24 to cash as the 7-point favourites and OVER on the 41-point total. The catch: Peyton Manning wasn’t a Bronco then. Tim Tebow was calling the plays at centre in that shootout between the Broncos and Raiders.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
At first glance, the public’s reaction to the total set for this matchup made sense. After all, Peyton Manning has been shredding records since becoming a Bronco and putting up touchdown clinics weekly in NFL betting – save for last week, perhaps, in his loss to the Patriots. (Let's not bring up ancient history.) What doesn't make sense, or what wasn’t readily apparent, is why 3% of the public is bothering with the UNDER in this clash. What were they on about?

Well, looking at the last few games between these two outfits, particularly those that pertain to the Peyton Era with Denver, it’s clearly obvious that the UNDER has cashed in those. That begs the question whether the UNDER is the sharp NFL pick after all. The evidence is there to suggest that might well be the case.

So who's got it right -- the 97% or the 3% brave souls tickling the UNDER? Well, we’ll see who’s at the cash-out window by the end of week 10 NFL betting. For our money, not because we're conformists but rather on account of the events of the previous week in New England, we’re expecting a virtuoso performance by the Broncos. Peyton Manning needs a big win to assuage some of his guilt and disappointment in week 9 NFL betting.

What’s more, the Raiders have shown they can play to their opponents this season, especially since the coaching change – the 30-24 loss to Seattle, case-and-point. Indeed, Seattle almost buggered it all last week by frittering away a significant lead. What this means is it might not be the walkover NFL odds seem to suggest for the Broncos. The Raiders have nothing to lose, so the Patriots need to be sharp and they'll need to keep scoring.

NFL Picks: Over 49.0 at 5Dimes

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