Betting the Total: Bengals vs Dolphins

Joe Freda

Thursday, October 31, 2013 1:16 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 31, 2013 1:16 PM GMT

The Miami Dolphins host the Cincinnati Bengals Tonight at the Sun Life Stadium. Find out where we've decided to place our money for this week 9 matchup.

Thursday’s matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins has seen its NFL odds move through the last three days. Miami now sits as a three-point home dog for my earlier followers, while we now look to add a play on the ‘total.’

Bengals injuries:  Mays, Sanu join Maualuga

Bengals linebacker Rey Maualuga will miss his first game of the year for Cincinnati with a knee injury, while safety Taylor Mays and wide out Mohamed Sanu are sidelined with shoulder concerns. Mays is now expected to miss the rest of the season, while Sanu is “questionable” to play after missing practice.

Miami’s key injury has Brandon Gibson out with a torn tendon in his knee, giving quarterback Ryan Tannehill less depth at wide receiver. Dolphins left tackle Jonathan Martin is also now expected to miss Thursday’s contest due to a personal departure.

Weather update:  High humidity expected

The weather forecast at Sun Life Stadium calls for 79 degrees, wit calm winds and a 10 percent chance of rain. Humidity of 70 percent is expected, which should cause its share of fatigue – particularly with both squads coming into the matchup on three days of rest.

Miami’s first trio of home dates have seen the OVER cash at 3-0, but last season saw an UNDER trend eventually take shape – with the wager cashing at 4-1 in the team’s final five matchups on its grass. The last Thursday night duel hosted by the Dolphins came in 2010, with UNDER tickets cashing in a 16-0 win by the Chicago Bears.

‘Total’ rises in early betting

Sports books opened the ‘total’ at 42 for this matchup, as reported in my opening NFL odds report. The number then moved north to 43 at most NFL betting shops, with Bovada adding an extra ‘hook’ at 43 ½.

SBRforum poster usma1992 also likes the OVER among his card of ‘total’ plays for NFL Week 9, projecting a combined score of 51 ½.  JM17 has also added the OVER to his night of action as a ‘lock’ for this week’s NFL picks.

The Pick:  UNDER in Miami

I am going against the posting public here, adding the UNDER in this duel to my week of sports picks.

Cincinnati has seen the UNDER cash at 5-2 in its last seven spots on grass, including its most recent 17-6 defeat against the Cleveland Browns. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton was held to a season-low of 206 passing yards in that affair, making it one of just two starts this year without a touchdown through the air.

Miami has seen its three home contests decided by four points or less, with another tight duel looming here. The Dolphins’ defense answered the bell in last November’s Thursday matchup with the Buffalo Bills, allowing no touchdowns in Buffalo’s four red zone trips.

Cincinnati cruised to a 49-9 win over the New York Jets in Sunday’s action, but should see its fire power drop with the UNDER going 18-4 in its last 22 spots after a victory of more than 14 points. For your NFL Picks look for UNDER tickets to cash again here, while the Dolphins also collect as short underdogs.

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