Betting Super Bowl 50 Part 1: Which Teams Don't Stand A Chance?

Jim Makos

Wednesday, January 13, 2016 1:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016 1:59 PM UTC

NFL season is drawing to its close. With the Divisional matchups just around the corner, I pick the most promising teams based on how the betting odds markets are adjusting.

***ATS NFL Picks For Divisional Playoffs***
ML NFL Picks For Divisional Playoffs***
O/U NFL Picks For Divisional Playoffs***

Eight teams are left competing for the 50th Super Bowl, three of which we we focused on back in September. While that isn’t a shocker, given that these three were the overall favorites at that time, With the Super Bowl being only 4 weeks away, let’s take a closer look at how NFL odds moved this season for the eight contenders.


Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are no longer topping the odds table at popular online sportsbooks, and while their odds are at relatively close to the favoites, they currently occoupy the fifth position. With the top five teams trading between odds of 5 and 6.50, we might not really see books select a clear favorite until we have the Divisional games behind us.

When it comes to finding this year's winner, Seattle doesn’t seem to be the wise choice. Most sportsbooks had shifted their odds to 15.0 mid-season, but a late season surge has seen them return closer to where they were prior to the start of the season. I expect their odds to start drifting again, and given the knockout nature of the upcoming games, it will mean elimination for Seahawks.


Green Bay Packers
Green Bay stood second inthe running at the start of the season, but they now find themselves only above Pittsburgh entering the next round of play. Their odds improved throughout November, proven by the decline in the following chart, but people began betting against themshortly there after, leading their odds to drift. Although they are now trading below their all-time high (25.0), I cant’ see how this upward trend is going to reverse.


Long Shots
A Steelers’ win pays out a hefty 20.0 for anyone willing to take such a risk. And I myself may be one of those risk-takers and include Steelers in my NFL picks, noticing the breakout of the support at 20.0 at several bookmakers. They’ll need to beat Denver to keep the trend going and finally overcoming the winner of the Chiefs – Patriots Divisional matchup to really make something out of this bet. Yet, the rewarding odds perhaps justify the risk. Besides, isn’t profitable betting about estimating risk/reward ratio as correctly as possible?

Kansas’ odds, on the other hand, have come a long way this season, as the Chiefs’ payout was a whopping 50.0 at the start of the season. They went even higher in late October when sportsbooks priced them as high as 500.0, and with the team currently trading at 12, early backers must be holding their breaths.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Kansas team and maybe, just maybe this downtrend lasts till the end, fueled by their favorable results and, of course, backers’ money. They now face the Super Bowl favorites, Patriots, and any shifts that we see in their future odds this week will clearly be in relation to this matchup. Thus, I’d rather watch how odds move in that matchup before the weekend, which we’ll be discussing on Friday or Saturday morning at the latest.

As this post is becoming quite long, I’ll be taking a pause here and will come back tomorrow with the odds action for the four favorite teams to win the Super Bowl 50.

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