Betting NFC East Teams: Washington Redskins Preview

Kevin Stott

Thursday, July 16, 2015 1:12 AM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 16, 2015 1:12 AM GMT

The Washington Redskins are really Lucky that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the NFC, or they would likely get the tag of the worst team in this conference. 

Knowing that the three teams in their NFC East division are so much better than the Redskins, is fading them from the get-go the best idea at the betting window this coming season? Let’s look at who Washington added, some Trends and the handful of games which the Redskins may be able to squeeze a Win out of, and the make some Futures picks.

 

Washington Redskins: Thank God For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Right?
The Washington Redskins (4-12 in 2014) would probably be the worst team in the NFC if not for NFC South cellar-dweller’s, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14). The Redskins (125/1 to win Super Bowl, Boylesports) and Head Coach Jay Gruden (5-11 ATS) have done a really nice job trying to bolster the Defense of this team which was absolutely atrocious last season, allowing 438 points and finishing with a -137 Point Differential. On Defense, new team General Manager Scot McCloughan went out and spent some money this Offseason, signing DE Ricky Jean Francois, DL Stephen Paea, NT Jerrell Powe, S Jeron Johnson and CB Chris Culliver to help in that regards. But going from a team which allowed 438 points in a season to one which can stop the opponents isn’t easy. and being the worst team in your division mean that everyone expects to beat you, also (Washington was 2-4 SU in the NFC East in 2014, but a woeful 2-10 overall against NFC opponents). In 2014, the Redskins (14/1 to win NFC East, Stan James) ranked #30 in the NFL in Turnover Differential Margin (-12) and this team managed to win only win one Road game (at Dallas, 20-17) last season, so expecting a nice season may be replaced by expecting a expected season. The more things change...

Another place Washington (66/1 to win NFC, Betfred) will have to do better at is on the Offensive side of the ball (Redskins averaged only 19 ppg in 2014). And that means “Roll With RGIII” ‘til the wheels fall off apparently, with backup Kirk Cousins somewhat disappointing last season in his stead of Griffin. Baylor product Griffin—who has been troubled by bad knees and just doesn’t have the speed or escapability he did in his younger years in the NFL—does have some solid weapons in WR DeSean Jackson (56 receptions, 1,169 yards, 9 TDs), WR Pierre Garçon, RB Alfred Morris, TE Jordan Reed and Rookies Jamison Crowder (WR, Duke) and Matt Jones (RB, Florida), but RGII and Reed are injury-prone, Jackson can be a headcase and Crowder and Jones are brand new playing professional football. They need skill position help.

One good thing for the Redskins though is the schedule, at least the First Half of the 2015 NFL Regular Season as Washington plays only one team with a winning record (Eagles, 10-6, Week 4) from Weeks 1-8. The Redskins open with the Dolphins (8-8 last season) at Home in Week 1 (Dolphins -2½, Pinnacle); host the St. Louis Rams (6-10) in Week 2; travel to East Rutherford to play the New York Giants (6-10) in their first divisional game of the season in Week 3; play that aforementioned game against the Eagles at Home in Week 4; are at Atlanta to play the Falcons (6-10) in Week 5; are on the Road again, at the New York Jets (4-12) in Week 6; and then host the NFC’s worst team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14) at FedEx Field in Week 7 before enjoying an Open Date (Bye) in Week 8.

So, at least Washington can rally around that reality and that GM McCloughan is new and that the Defense has a bunch of new and talented guys to at least try to hold the opponents at bay somewhat in the coming 2015 season. But a pleasant First Half schedule almost always means a nasty Second Half one will surely follow. And with the Eagles again, the Dallas Cowboys twice, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, the Bills in Buffalo, the Panthers in Carolina and the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in Foxboro in Week 9 immediately after that theoretical week of rest? Mercy. The second Half schedule is a hungry Great White shark. The Redskins had better win some games in the First Half of the season because the Second Half looks like Hell on Turf for Washington. And fading the Skins in those games against the Patriots (Week 9)—and going against the 5-1-1 ATS L7 Redskins trend—and versus the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo on a potentially snowy Dec. 20 on the first day of Winter seem like very choice spots from this distance some five months away in sunny July, mid-Summer.

 

Washington Redskins QB Depth Chart: Robert Griffin III—Kirk Cousins—Colt McCoy
Who’s New and Could Have an Impact? General Manager Scot McCloughan, Free Agent DT Terrance Knighton (Broncos), Rookie OL Brandon Scherff (Iowa), Rookie DE Preston Smith (Mississippi State), Rookie RB Matt Jones (Florida), Rookie WR Jamison Crowder (Duke), Rookie G Arie Kouandjio (Alabama), Rookie OLB Martrell Spaight (Arkansas), Rookie SS Kyshoen Jarrett (Virginia Tech), Rookie WR Evan Spencer (Ohio State), Rookie C Austin Reiter (South Florida), Free Agent DE Ricky Jean Francois (Colts), Free Agent DL Stephen Paea (Bears), Free Agent NT Jerrell Powe (Texans), Free Agent S Dashon Goldson (Buccaneers), Free Agent S Jeron Johnson (Seahawks), Free Agent CB Chris Culliver (49ers)

 

Possible Wins on Schedule: Week 1: Dolphins; Week 5: @ Falcons; Week 6: @ Jets; Week 7: Buccaneers; Week 12: Giants; Week 14: @ Bears

 

Some Good Potential Betting Spots in Regular Season: Because it seems the St. Louis Rams will be improving some this season while the Redskins should stay about the same or maybe dip a little, the Week 2 meeting between those two teams at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland seems like a good spot to back the visitors from St. Louis in what may be about a Pick ‘Em game, or maybe host Washington slight 1- to 2-point favorites. Possible Rams starting QB in that game Nick Foles is very familiar with the Redskins after beating them in Week 3 last season in NFC East play where  he threw for 321 yards and 3 TDs in a 37-34 Philadelphia victory in the City of Brotherly Love and Greasy Cheesesteaks when he was with the Eagles, who traded for him this Offseason for their starting QB, Sam Bradford. And the Trend supports that pick with the Redskins an anemic 1-6 ATS L7 vs. the Rams and 1-4 ATS L6 a Home at FedEx Field. Also, in the following week, Week 3 this year, fading the Redskins and laying the 5½ points  with the host New York Giants at MetLife at East Rutherford, New Jersey in the NFL Games of the Year at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook seems wise as Big Blue QB Eli Manning is usually much more productive and reliable than Redskins’ signal-caller Griffin. Also, check out the Buffalo Bills at home on December 20 against the Redskins as they are 6-0 ATS L6 against this team and December and January are historically advantageous months Weather-wise for the Bills, who look to be much improved this season after doing much this Offseason. And, taking the Patriots over Washington and laying the likely double-digits in Week 9 seems appropriate, despite the Trend and the the season-long rest Washington will have gotten. New England and QB Tom Brady should put up around 34-37 points in that affair, while the Redskins should struggle to get to 22 at Gillette Stadium in the inter-conference meeting in Week 9, the week the Redskins come back after their Open Date and an extremely soft Weeks 1-8 in terms of competition on the gridiron. The Yin and Yang of the NFL schedule, bruh.

Any Good Redskins Bets Now? Washington Redskins Regular Season Team Win Total Under 6 -110; New York Giants -5½ over Washington Redskins, Week 3, NFL Games of the Year (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

 

Recent Relevant Trends: Redskins 4-0 ATS L4 vs Saints; Redskins 8-2 ATS L10 vs Cowboys, 7-1 ATS L8 Away; Redskins 10-3 ATS L13 vs Bears, 8-2 ATS L10 Away; Redskins 3-1 ATS L4 vs Panthers; Redskins 5-1-1 ATS L7 vs Patriots, 3-1 L4 Away; Redskins 1-6 ATS L7 vs Rams, 1-4 ATS L5 Home; Redskins 0-6 ATS L6 Bills.

 

Players to Watch: WR DeSean Jackson (56 receptions, 1,169 yards, 9 TDs), RB Alfred Morris, QB Robert Griffin III, TE Jordan Reed, Free Agent DT Terrance Knighton (Broncos), Rookie OL Brandon Scherff (Iowa), Rookie DE Preston Smith (Mississippi State), Rookie WR Jamison Crowder (Duke), WR Pierre Garçon, Free Agent S Dashon Goldson (Buccaneers), Free Agent S Jeron Johnson (Seahawks), Free Agent DL Stephen Paea (Bears)

 

Washington Redskins Futures Picks: Washington Redskins Regular Season Team Win Total Under 6 -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), New York Giants -5½ over Washington Redskins, Week 3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, NFL Games of the Year)

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