Just 24 hours to go before Super Bowl 50 kicks off at Levi Stadium, we look at the latest NFL betting trends and determine what impact (if any) those have on Super Bowl 50 odds.
Super Bowl 50 Betting Trends
Since odds makers went to press with Super Bowl 50 odds for the highly anticipated showdown between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos we’ve been paying close attention to the market and the public’s reaction to said market, and it’s been a rather intriguing exercise. Right from the off, it’s been mostly one-way traffic with the Panthers garnering most of the action across sports betting platforms – an NFL betting trend that has held steadfastly.
Odds makers opened with the Panthers as the 3.5-point or 4-point faves across the board, a market outlook that was deemed laughable by the public. How could the Panthers be so underrated was the widespread opinion. Hadn’t they rubber stamped their invitation to the ultimate game in convincing fashion by decimating the Seahawks and Cardinals en route to the Super Bowl, a pair of NFC West sides that were touted by many as legitimate contenders.
Whatever the thinking behind the market stance was, the public was all over it nonetheless. In less than 24 hours of NFL betting, the Panthers had acquired 65% of spread tickets and a whopping 89% of the money risked on the game. It was shaping up to be the most one-sided Super Bowl in recent memory (Chart 1).
CHART 1: SUPER BOWL 50 SPREAD AND MONEY BETTING TRENDS
MONDAY 25 JANUARY
The impact of the one-sided betting saw the line swell from 3.5-points to 5.5-points within days. Some books went as high as 6-points where they hovered for some time, bouncing back and forth between 5.5 and 6-points.
We weighed in on the market on Wednesday, two days after our initial Super Bowl 50 Betting report and found that the Panthers were still raking in the bulk of spread tickets at 65% but the money had come down a pinch to 73.45%. Clearly, the added points on the line inspired Broncos’ backers to snap up the extra points. (Chart 2).
CHART 2: SUPER BOWL 50 SPREAD AND MONEY BETTING TRENDS
WEDNESDAY 27 JANUARY
Closer inspection reveals that buy back money on the Broncos saw the market oscillate between -6 and -5.5 during the ensuing days. That was evinced nowhere more so than in the amount of spread tickets allocated between the pair a week after opening on the market. (Chart 3).
CHART 3: SUPER BOWL 50 SPREAD AND MONEY BETTING TRENDS
MONDAY 1 FEBRUARY
In spite of the buy back on the Broncos as the significant underdogs, the percentage of money didn’t grow in proportion. The opposite happened with the stake in the Panthers growing from 73.45% on Wednesday 27 January to 78.4% on Monday 1 February, all while their share of the spread tickets hit the lowest tally yet at 58.62%.
Since Monday this week, the line has held fast to 5.5-points for the most part and the division of spread tickets has remained on an approximately 45-55 split between the Broncos and Panthers respectively. (Chart 4). The money percentages have shifted slightly though with the overall stake on the Panthers dwindling to 70% according to SBR Consensus Betting Polls . That’s the lowest yet over the course of almost a fortnight of betting.
CHART 4: SUPER BOWL 50 SPREAD AND MONEY BETTING TRENDS
SATURDAY 6 FEBRUARY
Super Bowl 50 Betting Trends Implications
To sum it up, Carolina Panthers received overwhelming public and sharp betting support as well at early doors, which caused the line to rocket up from a starting 3.5-points to 6-points. Since the line practically doubled, however, there was a clear change in attitude towards the market as buy back money came down the wire on the Broncos (inferred from the above charts recording the flow of spread tickets and money on the game), mostly by those NFL bettors and sharps as well choosing to wait and see how the market developed before settling on their chosen Super Bowl picks.
The upshot of these contrasting NFL betting trends has the market levelling out a bit where the volume of spread tickets is concerned. Late betting is evidently pouring in on the Denver Broncos and doubling the spread tickets recorded at early doors (Chart 1). Yet, the Panthers are still seeing decent action too.
As it is, the Broncos have just over 45% of the spread tickets (Chart 4), but, they still only have 30% of the money riding on their chances to mastermind the upset in Super Bowl 50 betting. It’s worth noting that despite the increased volume on the Broncos, odds makers continue to hang the game on a 5.5-point spread.