The Bills weren’t the model of success last season, and even though their NFL Odds to win the Super Bowl this year are far from a good value, they could hold some value ATS this season. They’ll have to get consistent offense, however that may prove difficult.
Super Bowl (+7500)
While the Bills did show some promise on both sides of the ball in 2013, EJ Manuel basically lost his rookie season due to injury, and now heads into his sophomore season without many starts under his belt. His accuracy and consistency were huge issues last season, and even though Buffalo didn’t have much to throw to last season, this year that excuse is invalid. Even after shipping Stevie Johnson to San Francisco, the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins 4th overall in May’s draft, and of course have the returning Robert Woods. These two represent the future pass catchers for Buffalo, and even though they may not be anywhere close to their prime, the Bills are theoretically going to have to air it out a lot this season if they’re down a lot.
The Bills’ chances of winning the AFC are equally as low, and even though they showed some upside last season, their team is so young that their chances of making waves ATS are low. Their defense is not going to be that great this season, and after losing Jarius Byrd, their secondary is probably going to take a step back. Not only did they lose their most important secondary member, but some of their current defenders aren't exactly motivated this offseason. Reports out of the newly opened Bills training camp have Marcell Dareus showing up out of shape. The Bills placed him on the active/PUP list, and even though I doubt he stays there past this week, it just goes to show you about the optimism surrounding the Bills this season. If their defense is still giving up 130 rushing yards per game, Buffalo might regress from their six-win season in 2013.
AFC East (+850)
When you play in a division with the Patriots, winning the division is almost out of the question, especially when you are the Bills. However even though the playoffs may seem like a far way away, there is a scenario where the Bills might be at least close to playoff contention. The rest of their division outside of the Pats are not that great, and if their defense is any better than it was in 2014, they could very well finish 2nd in the division. Miami is probably due for a regression, and the Jets are either going to be 6-10 or 10-6. With that kind of volatility, it wouldn’t completely shock me to see the Bills as a potential playoff team, however not only will their defense need to show up big, but Manuel and the offense is going to have to shine. All of these things falling into place at once is a long shot, but last season Buffalo went 8-8 ATS on a 6-10 SU record. If they are improved from last season, the chances of them having undervalued NFL betting odds ATS again are good.