Peyton Manning and the Broncos head to Super Bowl 50 as 6-point underdogs on the NFL odds board against Cam Newton and the Panthers and we look at a profitable angle based on fading favorites.
It has been a season full of ups and downs for the Broncos. Their defense has been extremely dominant, but Peyton Manning struggled early on, throwing 17 interceptions in his first nine games before missing six contests with a torn plantar fascia in his right foot. Then, Brock Osweiller's emergence had people wondering if Manning was done, but he came back during the Week 17 matchup against the Chargers, helping Denver secure the best record in the AFC and his ability to limit turnovers and his experience and leadership has made a difference in the playoffs.
The Denver Broncos finished the regular season 12-4, but the team was full of question marks ahead of the playoffs, even with such a solid record. Denver is currently at +6 on the Super Bowl odds board at 5Dimes and I found evidence that supports that they have a real chance to beat Carolina in Super Bowl 50.
Underdog Value on Super Bowl
Before placing your NFL picks for Super Bowl 50, keep in mind that favorites are just 3-10-1 ATS in the past 14 Super Bowls. Underdogs have been cashing moneyline bets as well, as they're 4-0 SU in the past four Super Bowls.
The chart below reflects the data above and also points out that the past four Super Bowls have seen the underdogs outscore the favorites by a combined 46 points.
More Stats & Betting Trends to Consider
The Denver Broncos come into this game 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.
Peyton Manning has played in 26 playoffs games, throwing 40 touchdowns and 24 interceptions, but this will be the first time in his career that he will be an underdog in a Super Bowl.
Manning’s teams are 1-2 ATS in his three Super Bowl appearances, with the lone win in 2006, when the Indianapolis Colts beat the Chicago Bears 29-17, covering a 7-point spread in Super Bowl XLI.
It's also worth noting that the Broncos are 3-1 SU in their last four games against the Panthers, including their last matchup in November 2012, which was also the first career meeting between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton, a 36-14 Denver win. Manning threw for 301 yards and a touchdown in that contest and Newton passed for 241 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. The Broncos were favored by 3.5 points in that game and they easily covered the posted spread.
As mentioned before, Peyton Manning is doing a great job limiting turnovers as of late. This is in fact the longest Manning has ever gone without throwing an interception in the playoffs.