Betting An NFL False Favorite And Top Dog For Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks players celebrating

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, January 10, 2017 5:50 PM GMT

It's amazing how things can change in a year! Last year in the wild-card round, all four road teams won. This year, all four home teams won and the games were about as exciting as a Sixers vs. Nets NBA contest. What's on tap for the divisional round?

In the four wild-card games last weekend, the average margin of victory was 19 points and it ended up the most interesting contest was the biggest bore going in as Oakland "only" lost by 13 to Houston, though it felt like from the start the Texans would win easily.

Since the title of this article has to do with choosing underdogs or making NFL picks against favorites, with only four choices, we never had a chance. This week, with the Top 4 seeds in action in both conferences, we should have a more conducive situation to finding underdogs that can beat the NFL odds.

 

Top Dog: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle knows it is heading into treacherous territory in Atlanta, which is coming off a bye and should be revved up for the playoffs at home. While the Seahawks got off easy with Detroit costing themselves with dropped balls, the Falcons will not make the same miscues. One major difference is playoff experience, and while just because teams have it this does not guarantee success, it helps when the going is tough. This is Atlanta's first postseason in four years and the Falcons have plenty of new faces, particularly on defense. Though Seattle was only 3-4-1 and 3-5 ATS on the road this season, it covered the two times as the listed underdog, and the Dirty Birds were only 5-3 and 3-5 ATS at the Georgia Dome. With Atlanta 4-13 ATS as home favorite the last three years, we will take the points with Seattle as a top dog.

NFL Free Pick: Seahawks +4.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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False Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs

Those betting football at any of A-rated sportsbooks at SBR must have been licking their chops seeing Ben Roethlisberger in a boot. Pittsburgh went from -1 to +2 quicker than people's reactions about Meryl Streep's comment on the Golden Globes. That was not the only reason for the rather large shift, as Kansas City was punished by Pittsburgh 43-14 back in October on the road -- and for those thinking about revenge, this also plays into the process. However, when I look at this game, I see the Chiefs at a disadvantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. All this talk of Arrowhead Stadium being a tough place to play is unfounded, as the Chiefs are 44-44 SU the past 11 years there and even as they have improved under Coach Andy Reid, in the last four years they are 13-16-1 ATS as home favorite. Kick in K.C. is 2-11 ATS in the playoffs, and I have the Chiefs as a false favorite.

NFL Free Pick: Steelers +1.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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